Commentaires
01/05/2019
Market Update
US tsys slightly trading slightly higher, 10Y 2.50% before ISM & Fed decision this aft, volume in TY futures running at ~50% of daily avg (115k) as Many European mkts are closed for May holiday. UK gilts higher after April Manuf PMI matched estimates (53.1). US equity futures positive led by Nasdaq (+0.66%) after earnings from Apple (+5.3% pre mkt). Fed expected to leave rates unch at 2.5%, press conference expected to acknowledge latest weakness in core inflation, while growth accelerated at a much faster pace in the first quarter due to inventory build. In Canada, GOCs unch in line with tsys, 10Y 1.70% narrow 3bp range over the past week, yesterday’s weak Feb GDP little impact on rates, 5s10s curve continues to steepen thou the J28/27 roll is at its narrowest in five months,possibly due to the upcoming roll in CGBs with June 28s becoming CTD.
News headlines
U.S. Futures Advance, Treasuries Steady Before Fed: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg) U.S. equity futures advanced on Wednesday following an upbeat forecast from Apple Inc. and as holidays in much of Asia and Europe weighed on trading. Treasuries and the dollar were in a holding pattern ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy decision.
TSX futures rise on global cues (Reuters) Futures for Canada’s main stock index were higher on Wednesday, after global equity markets rose as investors cheered Apple’s strong results.
Oil Retreats as U.S. Stockpile Jump Counters Global Supply Fears (Bloomberg) Oil retreated amid signs of a sharp increase in U.S. crude inventories and concerns over the strength of economic growth in China.
Fed eyes inflation as Trump pushes rate cut (BNN) Federal Reserve policy makers may decide Wednesday that falling inflation reinforces a message of caution on interest-rate moves, rather than bowing to President Donald Trump’s demands for drastic action to boost the U.S. economy.
The debate behind Trump’s move to tighten Iran oil sanctions (Reuters) U.S. President Donald Trump’s unexpected decision to ban all Iranian oil purchases after May 1 – ending exemptions for eight nations – came after hawkish economic and security advisors allayed the president’s fears of an oil price hike, according to three sources familiar with the internal debate.
Fed likely to ignore Trump’s call to cut interest rates (Reuters) The U.S. Federal Reserve, leaning back against pressure from President Donald Trump to slash interest rates, is expected to leave borrowing costs unchanged on Wednesday as it maintains a ‘patient’ monetary policy stance amid strong economic growth.
China, U.S. hold ‘productive’ trade talks in Beijing (Reuters) China and the United States held “productive” trade talks in Beijing on Wednesday and will continue discussions in Washington next week, U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said, as the two try to end their trade war.
Trump, Democrats agree to spend $2 trillion on U.S. infrastructure (Reuters) President Donald Trump and Democratic leaders agreed on Tuesday to spend $2 trillion on U.S. roads, bridges, power grids, water and broadband infrastructure, while leaving the thorny details of how to pay for it all to another meeting in three weeks.
Overnight markets
| Cda Benchmarks | Yield | Tsy Benchmarks | Yield |
| 2 Year | 1.553% | 2 Year | 2.262% |
| 5 Year | 1.532% | 5 Year | 2.27% |
| 10 Year | 1.705% | 10 Year | 2.495% |
| 30 Year | 1.985% | 30 Year | 2.923% |
US Economic Data
| 07:00 AM | MBA Mortgage Applications, Apr 26 Survey – Actual -4.3% Prior -7.30% |
| 08:15 AM | ADP Employment Change, Apr Survey 180k Actual 275k Prior 129k Revised 151k |
| 09:45 AM | Markit US Manufacturing PMI, Apr F Survey 52.4 Prior 52.4 |
| 10:00 AM | ISM Manufacturing, Apr Survey 55.0 Prior 55.3 |
| ISM Prices Paid, Apr Survey 55.0 Prior 54.3 | |
| Construction Spending MoM, Mar Survey 0.00% Prior 1.00% | |
| 02:00 PM | FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound), May 1 Survey 2.50% Prior 2.50% |
| FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound), May 1 Survey 2.25% Prior 2.25% |
Canadian Economic Data
| à 09:30 AM | Markit Canada Manufacturing PMI, Apr Survey — Prior 50.5 |
Disclosure and Disclaimer
The following sources of information have been, or may have been, used partially or in their entirety to compile the herein provided CTI Capital Securities Inc. (“CTI Capital”) ‘Morning Comments.’ CTI Capital believes these sources to be generally reliable, however, as said sources are varied and from third parties, CTI Capital cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of said information: Canadian Press (CP); Bloomberg News (BN); Wall Street Journal (WSJ); Stone & McCarthy Research Associates (SMRA); New York Times (NYT); Financial Times (FT); Market News International (MNI); Globe and Mail; Associated Press (AP); CNW Group (CNW); Reuters; Business News Network (BNN); Market Watch; and others.
Ivan Greenstein, Stephan Buu, Émile Bordeleau
Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilières Inc.
Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230
Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilieres Inc.
Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230
30/04/2019
Market Update
US tsys pressured in recent trade after German flash HICP inflation came in stronger – 2.1% vs 1.7% and US equity futures move higher on earnings, US 10Y 2.535% (+1bp). Core Euro bonds underperforming tsys, 10Y bund yields +3bps, gilts +4bps. Q1 Eurozone GDP 1.2% y/y vs 1.1%. US equities recouping losses from Google disappointment after positive earnings from MCD, GE. In Canada, GOCs lower, in line with tsys after Feb GDP came in below exp (-0.1% vs 0.0%), curve 1bp steeper 2s10s.
News headlines
Mnuchin hopes for ‘substantial progress’ in China trade talks (Reuters) U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said on Tuesday that he hopes to make “substantial progress” with Chinese negotiators in the next two rounds of trade talks, as the world’s two largest economies look for ways to end their bruising trade war.
Iran says it will keep exporting oil despite U.S. pressure (Reuters) Iran will continue to export oil despite U.S. pressure aimed at reducing the country’s crude shipments to zero, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said on Tuesday.
TSX futures slip, Feb GDP in focus (Reuters) Futures for Canada’s main stock index were lower on Tuesday, as investors awaited Canada’s February gross domestic product (GDP) data, which is due later in the day.
Stocks Lose Traction on Mixed Earnings; Euro Gains: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg) U.S. equity futures were mixed and European stocks edged lower on Tuesday while Asian shares slipped as investors weighed another mixed bag of corporate results. Treasuries were steady a day before the next Federal Reserve policy decision.
Oil Gains as Saudis Talk of Extending Cuts, Venezuela Escalates (Bloomberg) Oil rose as Saudi Arabia signaled OPEC and its allies could extend supply cuts to the end of the year, while Venezuela’s opposition leader called for a military uprising.
Big banks break away from lobby groups in Brexit trade deal talks (Reuters) A group of banks are directly feeding the British government ideas for a Brexit financial services trade deal, bypassing the industry’s major lobby groups after their blueprint for a future relationship with the EU was spurned by Brussels last year.
Equities drop after China data; euro zone growth lifts single currency (Reuters) European shares edged down on Tuesday after weak Chinese business surveys doused appetite for risk, while the single currency climbed after euro zone growth beat expectations.
Overnight markets
| Cda Benchmarks | Yield | Tsy Benchmarks | Yield |
| 2 Year | 1.574% | 2 Year | 2.286% |
| 5 Year | 1.559% | 5 Year | 2.308% |
| 10 Year | 1.729% | 10 Year | 2.527% |
| 30 Year | 2.01% | 30 Year | 2.958% |
US Economic Data
| 08:30 AM | Employment Cost Index, 1Q Survey 0.70% Acutal 0.7% Prior 0.70% |
| 09:45 AM | MNI Chicago PMI, Apr Survey 58.5 Prior 58.7 |
| 10:00 AM | Pending Home Sales MoM, Mar Survey 1.50% Prior -1.00% |
| Conf. Board Consumer Confidence, Apr Survey 126.8 Prior 124.1 |
Canadian Economic Data
| 08:30 AM | GDP MoM, Feb Survey 0.00% Actual -0.1% Prior 0.30% |
| GDP YoY, Feb Survey 1.40% Actual 1.1% Prior 1.60% | |
| Industrial Product Price MoM, Mar Survey – Actual 1.3% Prior 0.30% | |
| Raw Materials Price Index MoM, Mar Survey – Actual 2.8% Prior 4.60% |
Disclosure and Disclaimer
The following sources of information have been, or may have been, used partially or in their entirety to compile the herein provided CTI Capital Securities Inc. (“CTI Capital”) ‘Morning Comments.’ CTI Capital believes these sources to be generally reliable, however, as said sources are varied and from third parties, CTI Capital cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of said information: Canadian Press (CP); Bloomberg News (BN); Wall Street Journal (WSJ); Stone & McCarthy Research Associates (SMRA); New York Times (NYT); Financial Times (FT); Market News International (MNI); Globe and Mail; Associated Press (AP); CNW Group (CNW); Reuters; Business News Network (BNN); Market Watch; and others.
Ivan Greenstein, Stephan Buu, Émile Bordeleau
Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilières Inc.
Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230
Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilieres Inc.
Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230
29/04/2019
Market Update
US tsys slightly lower, 10Y 2.505 (+0.5bps), low volume in TY futures (198k) before big week for economic data including Fed decision Wed, ADP , ISM Man & April payrolls. March Personal Income & PCE scheduled for today. Core Euro bonds lower, German bunds 1bp higher with EU peripheral spds tighter after S&P affirmed Italy at BBB on Friday. GOCs lower, in line with tsys , 10Y 1.695%.
News headlines
Stocks Mixed at Start of Data-Rich Week; Oil Slips: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg) Stocks in Europe slipped and U.S. index futures fluctuated at the start of a holiday-truncated week packed with data releases that will provide clues on global economic growth. Treasury yields and the dollar edged higher, while oil fell.
TSX futures flat as oil prices slip (Reuters) Futures for Canada’s main stock index were flat on Monday, as oil prices fell after President Donald Trump demanded that OPEC should raise output to soften the impact of U.S. sanctions against Iran.
As trade talks reach endgame, U.S.-China ties could hinge on enforcement (Reuters) U.S. negotiators head to China on Tuesday to try to hammer out details to end the two countries’ trade war, including the shape of an enforcement mechanism, the success or failure of which could set the trajectory of ties for years to come.
Mnuchin hopes latest talks may seal U.S.-China trade deal (Reuters) U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, in an television interview that aired on Monday, said he hopes that the United States and China can finalize a trade deal with two more rounds of talks between the global economic powerhouses.
Oil Extends Decline After Trump Renews His Call for Lower Prices (Bloomberg) Oil fell again, extending its biggest retreat in two months, after U.S. President Donald Trump renewed his push for lower prices and Russia said it would soon resolve a problem with contaminated supplies.
Iran says U.S. sanctions on its oil industry will damage market stability (Reuters) U.S. sanctions against Iran’s oil industry will damage the stability of global oil markets, a senior Iranian official was quoted as saying on Monday.
Canadian farm exports run into Chinese wall amid diplomatic dispute (Reuters) An expanding list of Canadian farm exports is hitting obstacles at Chinese ports, leaving sellers of soybeans, peas and pork scrambling amid a bitter diplomatic dispute.
Fed may end up seeing 1995-96 rate cuts as a template for today (BNN) As Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and his colleagues gather this week for a policy making meeting, some of them will likely have 1995 on their mind.
Overnight markets
| Cda Benchmarks | Yield | Tsy Benchmarks | Yield |
| 2 Year | 1.552% | 2 Year | 2.284% |
| 5 Year | 1.537% | 5 Year | 2.293% |
| 10 Year | 1.7% | 10 Year | 2.509% |
| 30 Year | 1.99% | 30 Year | 2.933% |
US Economic Data
| 08:30 AM | Personal Income, Mar Survey 0.40% Prior 0.20% |
| Personal Spending, Mar Survey 0.70% Prior — | |
| Real Personal Spending, Mar Survey 0.50% Prior — | |
| PCE Deflator YoY, Mar Survey 1.60% Prior — | |
| PCE Core Deflator MoM, Mar Survey 0.10% Prior — | |
| PCE Core Deflator YoY, Mar Survey 1.70% Prior — | |
| 10:30 AM | Dallas Fed Manf. Activity, Apr Survey 10.0 Prior 8.3 |
Canadian Economic Data
| 10:00 AM | Bloomberg Nanos Confidence, Apr 26 Survey — Prior 55.2 |
Disclosure and Disclaimer
The following sources of information have been, or may have been, used partially or in their entirety to compile the herein provided CTI Capital Securities Inc. (“CTI Capital”) ‘Morning Comments.’ CTI Capital believes these sources to be generally reliable, however, as said sources are varied and from third parties, CTI Capital cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of said information: Canadian Press (CP); Bloomberg News (BN); Wall Street Journal (WSJ); Stone & McCarthy Research Associates (SMRA); New York Times (NYT); Financial Times (FT); Market News International (MNI); Globe and Mail; Associated Press (AP); CNW Group (CNW); Reuters; Business News Network (BNN); Market Watch; and others.
Ivan Greenstein, Stephan Buu, Émile Bordeleau
Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilières Inc.
Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230
Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilieres Inc.
Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230