Commentaires
23/04/2019
Market Update
US tsys slightly lower, down in recent trade as stock futures erase losses (S&P +4), US10Y 2.59%, below avg volume in TY futures (290k). Second tier data today with Phili Fed non-man index, Richmond Fed & March New Home Sales. The latter have rebounded 20% since hitting a two year low in Oct, with lower l.t. mortgage rates the main driver. In Canada, 10Y yields ~1.80%, curve continuing to steepen led by 10s, 5s10s +4bps over the week. BOC/MPR tomorrow – expect BOC to leave rates unch – the Bank seems to be caught between a confluence of offsetting factors – firming signs of inflation as well as building slack in the economy and an over indebted housing sector. In provis, supply from Ont & QC a possibility – spreads holding near recent tights, provi curve steeper along with underlying GOC curve.
News headlines
U.S. may follow China with first quarter GDP upside surprise (Reuters) A temporary government shutdown with no end in sight, rising trade conflicts and a global growth slowdown: the first quarter outlook for the U.S. economy did not look promising at the turn of the year.
TSX futures flat, oil prices continue to rise (Reuters) Futures for Canada’s main stock index were little changed on Tuesday, even though oil prices rose to their highest level since November after the U.S. tightened sanctions on Iran.
Stocks Mixed as Earnings Roll In; Oil Extends Gain: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg) U.S. equity-index futures were range bound, European stocks slipped and Asian shares nudged higher on Tuesday as many markets reopened after a long weekend and as the results season ramps up. Crude extended recent gains.
Oil hits highest since November as U.S. to tighten Iran sanctions (Reuters) Oil prices hit their highest since November on Tuesday after Washington announced all waivers on imports of sanctions-hit Iranian oil would end next week, pressuring importers to stop buying from Tehran and further tightening global supply.
China complains to U.S. over end to Iran oil sanction waivers (Reuters) China’s Foreign Ministry said on Tuesday it has formally complained to the United States over its decision to end waivers on sanctions on Iranian oil imports, adding another fault line to already complicated Beijing-Washington ties.
Dollar gains with FX volatility holding near five-year lows (Reuters) The dollar held near three-week highs on Tuesday as a drop in market volatility ramped up demand for riskier assets, with higher U.S. bond yields also offering some support.
Overnight markets
| Cda Benchmarks | Yield | Tsy Benchmarks | Yield |
| 2 Year | 1.622% | 2 Year | 2.391% |
| 5 Year | 1.619% | 5 Year | 2.386% |
| 10 Year | 1.798% | 10 Year | 2.589% |
| 30 Year | 2.104% | 30 Year | 2.997% |
US Economic Data
| 09:00 AM | FHFA House Price Index MoM, Feb Survey 0.50% Prior 0.60% |
| 10:00 AM | Richmond Fed Manufact. Index, Apr Survey 10 Prior 10 |
| New Home Sales, Mar Survey 649k Prior 667k | |
| New Home Sales MoM, Mar Survey -2.70% Prior 4.90% |
Canadian Economic Data
| 08:30 AM | Wholesale Trade Sales MoM, Feb Survey 0.10% Prior 0.60% |
Disclosure and Disclaimer
The following sources of information have been, or may have been, used partially or in their entirety to compile the herein provided CTI Capital Securities Inc. (“CTI Capital”) ‘Morning Comments.’ CTI Capital believes these sources to be generally reliable, however, as said sources are varied and from third parties, CTI Capital cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of said information: Canadian Press (CP); Bloomberg News (BN); Wall Street Journal (WSJ); Stone & McCarthy Research Associates (SMRA); New York Times (NYT); Financial Times (FT); Market News International (MNI); Globe and Mail; Associated Press (AP); CNW Group (CNW); Reuters; Business News Network (BNN); Market Watch; and others.
Ivan Greenstein, Stephan Buu, Émile Bordeleau
Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilières Inc.
Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230
Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilieres Inc.
Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230
22/04/2019
News headlines
U.S. Stock Futures Decline in Holiday-Hit Trading: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg) U.S. equity-index futures dropped on Monday while stocks in Asia were mixed as the Easter holiday weekend continued in many countries. Oil jumped on a report America scrapped waivers allowing the purchase of some Iranian crude.
U.S. to Eliminate Iran Oil Waivers After May 2 Expiration (Bloomberg) The Trump administration won’t renew waivers that let countries buy Iranian oil without facing U.S. sanctions, according to four people familiar with the matter, a move that roiled energy markets and risks upsetting major importers such as China and India.
To survive trade battles, China manufacturers deploy every weapon they can (Reuters) Manufacturers in China facing trade barriers are deploying an array of moves to try to keep foreign customers – giving discounts, tapping tax breaks, trimming workforces and, occasionally, shifting production overseas to skirt tariffs.
CANADA STOCKS-TSX futures flat; oil hits 2019 high (Reuters) Futures for Canada’s main stock index were little changed on Monday, even as oil prices hit their highest since November.
PRECIOUS-Gold recovers from 4-month low, tracks oil price rally (Reuters) Gold inched up on Monday, moving away from a near 4-month trough touched in the previous session, drawing support from a drop in equities and a jump in crude oil prices.
Financial market ‘pause party’ makes Fed rate cut less likely (Reuters) Risk-taking has been the rage since the Federal Reserve quit hiking interest rates at the end of last year. U.S. stocks are back near record highs and investors are stockpiling the lowest-grade corporate bonds with only a smidgen of extra compensation for the added risk.
Overnight markets
| Cda Benchmarks | Yield | Tsy Benchmarks | Yield |
| 2 Year | 1.629% | 2 Year | 2.385% |
| 5 Year | 1.627% | 5 Year | 2.378% |
| 10 Year | 1.789% | 10 Year | 2.57% |
| 30 Year | 2.07% | 30 Year | 2.976% |
US Economic Data
| 08:30 AM | Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index, Mar Survey -0.10 Actual -0.15 Prior -0.29 |
| 10:00 AM | Existing Home Sales, Mar Survey 5.30m Prior 5.51m |
| Existing Home Sales MoM, Mar Survey -3.80% Prior 11.8% |
Canadian Economic Data
| 10:00 AM | Bloomberg Nanos Confidence, Apr 19 Survey – Prior 55.8 |
Disclosure and Disclaimer
The following sources of information have been, or may have been, used partially or in their entirety to compile the herein provided CTI Capital Securities Inc. (“CTI Capital”) ‘Morning Comments.’ CTI Capital believes these sources to be generally reliable, however, as said sources are varied and from third parties, CTI Capital cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of said information: Canadian Press (CP); Bloomberg News (BN); Wall Street Journal (WSJ); Stone & McCarthy Research Associates (SMRA); New York Times (NYT); Financial Times (FT); Market News International (MNI); Globe and Mail; Associated Press (AP); CNW Group (CNW); Reuters; Business News Network (BNN); Market Watch; and others.
Ivan Greenstein, Stephan Buu, Émile Bordeleau
Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilières Inc.
Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230
Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilieres Inc.
Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230
18/04/2019
Market Update
US tsys higher, 10Y 2.565% (-2.5bps), heavy volume in TY futures (540k) ahead of March Retail Sales & Phili Fed Index. Equity futures rebounding from early losses, S&P +2.5. EGBs higher, outperforming tsys, sharp spike in bund futures after weaker Eurozone PMIs. MNI Positioning Indicator pointing to short setting being the theme in core EGBs all week. Furthermore, due to the holidays issuance declines markedly to just E6.5bln vs E13.4bln this week, while redemptions total E31.2bln (E29.3bln of which is the OAT 4.25 19) – so this could also be supportive of prices before the long weekend. GOCs higher, in line with tsys before Feb Retail Sales – 0.4% expected from -0.3% in Jan, the rebound coming from higher gas prices and auto sales (10% in feb).
News headlines
Bonds Advance, Stocks Mixed Before Holiday Weekend: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg) Treasuries led a rebound in global bonds on Thursday, while U.S. equity futures edged lower and European stocks fluctuated as a cautious mood gripped markets before the long holiday weekend.
Stock futures subdued after weak manufacturing data from Europe (Reuters) U.S. stock index futures were muted on Thursday, as weak manufacturing data out of Europe underscored concerns of a global slowdown, while investors stayed on the sidelines ahead of the release of a long-awaited Mueller report.
Oil Steadies as Political Risks Mingle With Economic Worries (Bloomberg) Oil steadied below $64 a barrel in New York as ongoing threats to supply from political crises were offset by disappointing indicators on the global economy.
CANADA STOCKS-Futures weighed down by global growth concerns (Reuters) Futures for Canada’s main stock index were slightly lower on Thursday, ahead of a long Easter weekend, after world markets erased this week’s gains on fears of a slowdown in global growth following weak manufacturing surveys from Asia and Europe.
Trump team readies PR offensive on North America trade deal’s economic effects (Reuters) The Trump administration is readying a public relations offensive over the economic impact of its new North American trade deal to counter a crucial report expected on Thursday that economists see as likely to show minimal gains at best.
UK consumers keep calm and carry on shopping before Brexit deadline (Reuters) British shoppers ignored worries about an impending Brexit deadline and spent heavily in March, official data showed on Thursday, supporting the country’s sluggish economy while companies were cutting back on investment.
Mueller Day: What to Look for When His Redacted Report Is Out (Bloomberg) Attorney General William Barr is set to release a redacted version of Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s final report Thursday, and the document could leave everyone unsatisfied — President Donald Trump, lawmakers and the public.
Overnight markets
| Cda Benchmarks | Yield | Tsy Benchmarks | Yield |
| 2 Year | 1.646% | 2 Year | 2.382% |
| 5 Year | 1.642% | 5 Year | 2.373% |
| 10 Year | 1.794% | 10 Year | 2.565% |
| 30 Year | 2.068% | 30 Year | 2.977% |
US Economic Data
| 08:30 AM | Retail Sales Advance MoM, Mar Survey 1.00% Prior -0.20% |
| Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM, Mar Survey 0.70% Prior -0.40% | |
| Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas, Mar Survey 0.40% Prior -0.60% | |
| Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook, Apr Survey 11.0 Prior 13.7 | |
| Initial Jobless Claims, Apr 13 Survey 205k Prior 196k | |
| Continuing Claims, Apr 6 Survey 1722k Prior 1713k | |
| 09:45 AM | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, Apr 14 Survey — Prior 59.8 |
| Markit US Manufacturing PMI, Apr P Survey 52.8 Prior 52.4 | |
| Markit US Services PMI, Apr P Survey 55.0 Prior 55.3 | |
| Markit US Composite PMI, Apr P Survey — Prior 54.6 | |
| 10:00 AM | Leading Index, Mar Survey 0.40% Prior 0.20% |
Canadian Economic Data
| 08:30 AM | Retail Sales MoM, Feb Survey 0.40% Prior -0.30% |
| Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM, Feb Survey 0.20% Prior 0.10% |
Disclosure and Disclaimer
The following sources of information have been, or may have been, used partially or in their entirety to compile the herein provided CTI Capital Securities Inc. (“CTI Capital”) ‘Morning Comments.’ CTI Capital believes these sources to be generally reliable, however, as said sources are varied and from third parties, CTI Capital cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of said information: Canadian Press (CP); Bloomberg News (BN); Wall Street Journal (WSJ); Stone & McCarthy Research Associates (SMRA); New York Times (NYT); Financial Times (FT); Market News International (MNI); Globe and Mail; Associated Press (AP); CNW Group (CNW); Reuters; Business News Network (BNN); Market Watch; and others.
Ivan Greenstein, Stephan Buu, Émile Bordeleau
Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilières Inc.
Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230
Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilieres Inc.
Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230