Commentaires matinaux

Market Update

Tsys trading lower, 10Y 2.60% (+1bp), after Friday’s 5bp rally brought yields to the lowest levels since early Jan. Stock futures slightly higher, S&P extending gains after rising to new highs Friday above 2800. Core EGBs slightly lower, odds of third Brexit vote passing the House of Commons have increased as several conservative members have switched to support PM May. FOMC meeting Wed – Fed expected to leave rate unch but provide more insight as to plans to end its portfolio runoff.  GOCs slightly lower, in line with tsys, 10Y 1.74%. Friday’s CPI and Retail Sales the focus this week as far as Cdn data.

News headlines

Stocks, Bonds Hold Gains at Start of Busy Week: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg) U.S. equity futures and European stocks posted modest gains at the start of a week filled with potentially significant catalysts from central bank meetings, geopolitical developments and economic data. Treasuries were little changed and the dollar drifted lower.

How Trudeau’s Faring Economically Ahead of His Election Budget (Bloomberg) Prime Minister Justin Trudeau delivers his fourth and final budget this week before Canada’s next election. The fiscal plan, to be unveiled Tuesday in the Ottawa legislature by Finance Minister Bill Morneau, comes with the economy in a soft patch, concerns building over the country’s competitiveness and the Liberal government trailing in opinion polls.

CANADA STOCKS-TSX futures flat as focus shifts to Fed meeting (Reuters) Futures for Canada’s main stock index were flat on Monday amid mounting speculation that the U.S. Federal Reserve will adopt a dovish tone at its two-day policy meeting from March 19.

China rejects ‘abnormal’ U.S. spying concerns as EU pushes trade (Reuters) China dismissed U.S. security warnings against its telecoms equipment maker Huawei as groundless and “abnormal” on Monday, as the Chinese government’s top diplomat went to Brussels to cool growing European frustration over trade.

U.S. heavy equipment makers feeling pain from tariffs, disputes: report (Reuters) U.S. makers of bulldozers and other heavy equipment are raising prices, losing sales and in some cases beginning to trim workers in response to the Trump administration’s protracted trade disputes with various countries, according to a new report.

Boeing shares fall again after probe report into FAA approval of 737 MAX (Reuters) Boeing Co shares fell by more than 2.2 percent early on Monday, after a pair of newspaper reports over the weekend raised more questions about the certification process for its 737 MAX jets before two recent deadly crashes.

Saudis urge OPEC+ to stick with cuts, but may delay decision (BNN) Saudi Arabia urged fellow producers in the OPEC+ coalition to persevere with output cuts but conceded the group may delay a meeting to consider the policy.

Overnight markets

Cda Benchmarks	Yield	Tsy Benchmarks	Yield
2 Year	1.625%	2 Year	2.44%
5 Year	1.606%	5 Year	2.402%
10 Year	1.723%	10 Year	2.598%
30 Year	2.028%	30 Year	3.022%

US Economic Data

10:00 AM

NAHB Housing Market Index, Mar Surv 63 Prior 62

Canadian Economic Data

8:30 AM	Int’l Securities Transactions, Jan Actual 28.40b  Prior -18.96b
10:00 AM	Bloomberg Nanos Confidence, Mar 15 Prior 55.5

Disclosure and Disclaimer

The following sources of information have been, or may have been, used partially or in their entirety to compile the herein provided CTI Capital Securities Inc. (“CTI Capital”) ‘Morning Comments.’ CTI Capital believes these sources to be generally reliable, however, as said sources are varied and from third parties, CTI Capital cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of said information: Canadian Press (CP); Bloomberg News (BN); Wall Street Journal (WSJ); Stone & McCarthy Research Associates (SMRA); New York Times (NYT); Financial Times (FT); Market News International (MNI); Globe and Mail; Associated Press (AP); CNW Group (CNW); Reuters; Business News Network (BNN); Market Watch; and others.

Ivan Greenstein, Stephan Buu, Émile Bordeleau

Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilières Inc.

Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230

Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilieres Inc.

Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230

Market Update

US tsys trading higher, curve flatter, 10Y 2.62% (-1bp), low volume in TY futures (230k).   Eco data includes Empire Man, Feb Ind Prod/Cap Util & March U. of Mich sentiment.  Industrial production expected to rebound after Jan plunge – mostly related to weakness in autos, mining and defense (govt shutdown). GOCs slightly higher ahead of Jan Man Sales, Feb Existing Home Sales. Both CMB 5Y deal (36.5) and Ontario long reopening (85) went well, CMB 5Y still looks attractive vs CMB 28s and Ontarios.

News headlines

Stocks Ending Week on Solid Footing; Dollar Steady: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg) U.S. equity-index futures rose alongside European stocks as concerns appeared to ebb about the slowdown in global growth. Emerging-market shares advanced, while the dollar and Treasuries held steady.

Stock futures rise on renewed U.S.-China trade hopes (Reuters) U.S. stock index futures rose on Friday as investors welcomed positive signs regarding trade talks between the United States and China and after UK lawmakers voted to delay a potentially chaotic exit from the European Union.

China Vows to Stick to Targeted Stimulus Amid Jobless Pressure (Bloomberg) China will stick to its current targeted economic support strategy and resist the temptation to engage in large-scale stimulus like quantitative easing or a massive expansion in public spending, Premier Li Keqiang said.

For Poloz, Trump is delivering plenty of uncertainty to process (BNN) Unlike his Federal Reserve counterpart, Stephen Poloz doesn’t have Donald Trump breathing down his neck. But there’s still no getting away from the U.S. president.

TSX futures rise on renewed U.S.-China trade talk hopes (Reuters) Futures for Canada’s main stock index edged higher on Friday on fresh hopes of a resolution to the trade dispute between the United States and China.

Nine banks win dismissal of Canadian rate-rigging lawsuit in U.S. (Reuters) A federal judge in Manhattan on Thursday dismissed a lawsuit by investors that accused nine large banks, including six from Canada, of conspiring to manipulate a Canadian rate benchmark to improve profits from derivatives trading.

Oil Set for Weekly Gain as OPEC+ Meets to Discuss Extending Cuts (Bloomberg) Oil headed for a second weekly gain as the world’s top crude producers are scheduled to discuss extending their pledged output curbs to avert a global glut.

Overnight markets

Cda Benchmarks	Yield	Tsy Benchmarks	Yield
2 Year	1.642%	2 Year	2.456%
5 Year	1.628%	5 Year	2.422%
10 Year	1.742%	10 Year	2.618%
30 Year	2.041%	30 Year	3.031%

US Economic Data

8:30 AM	Empire Manufacturing, Mar Surv 10.0 Prior 8.8
9:15 AM	Industrial Production MoM, Feb Surv 0.4% Prior -0.6%
	Capacity Utilization, Feb Surv 78.5% Prior 78.2%
10:00 AM	JOLTS Job Openings, Jan Surv 7225 Prior 7335
	U. of Mich. Sentiment, Mar P Surv 95.6 Prior 93.8
4:00 PM	Net Long-term TIC Flows, Jan Prior -$48.3b
	Total Net TIC Flows, Jan -$33.1b

Canadian Economic Data

8:30 AM	Manufacturing Sales MoM, Jan Surv 0.4% Prior -1.3%
9:00 AM	Existing Home Sales MoM, Feb Surv -4.0% Prior 3.6%

Disclosure and Disclaimer

The following sources of information have been, or may have been, used partially or in their entirety to compile the herein provided CTI Capital Securities Inc. (“CTI Capital”) ‘Morning Comments.’ CTI Capital believes these sources to be generally reliable, however, as said sources are varied and from third parties, CTI Capital cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of said information: Canadian Press (CP); Bloomberg News (BN); Wall Street Journal (WSJ); Stone & McCarthy Research Associates (SMRA); New York Times (NYT); Financial Times (FT); Market News International (MNI); Globe and Mail; Associated Press (AP); CNW Group (CNW); Reuters; Business News Network (BNN); Market Watch; and others.

Ivan Greenstein, Stephan Buu, Émile Bordeleau

Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilières Inc.

Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230

Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilieres Inc.

Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230

Market Update

Tsys slightly higher on below avg volume in TY futures, 10Y 2.62% Feb Import Price/ claims data. .  Core EGBs weaker in wake of yesterday’s Brexit vote, UK 10Y gilt 2.5bps higher @ 1.22%.  German bunds lagging the decline in gilts , the IFO Institute downgraded German growth forecast to 0.6% for this year from 1.1%. US equities reversing earlier losses after Trump – Xi meeting pushed back to April.  GOCs higher, in line with tsys, CMB 5Y pricing expected this morn , June 24 36.5/36

News headlines

U.S. Stock Futures Stall on Trade Meeting Delay: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg) U.S. equity futures fluctuated on Thursday as America and China were said to push back a key meeting on trade. European stocks remained higher while the pound fell as the Brexit saga rumbled on.

Brexit heads for delay as May battles to revive her dying deal (BNN) The U.K. is on course to delay Brexit and open the door to a radical re-write of the terms of its divorce from the European Union after recoiling from an economically disastrous no-deal split.

Federal budget expected to have more wiggle room, even with weaker outlook (BNN) The improved economy is expected to give the Trudeau government more fiscal room than anticipated in next week’s pre-election budget — but a wobbly economic finish to 2018 means conditions could look much different as the October vote approaches.

TSX futures flat as investors focus on U.S.-China trade talks (Reuters) Futures on Canada’s main stock index traded flat on Thursday, as uncertainties clouded U.S.-China trade talks, weighing on oil prices.

China industrial output growth falls to 17-year low, more support steps expected (Reuters) Growth in China’s industrial output fell to a 17-year low in the first two months of the year and the jobless rate rose, pointing to further weakness in the world’s second-biggest economy that is likely to trigger more support measures from Beijing.

Trump says he is in no rush to complete China trade deal (Reuters) U.S. President Donald Trump said on Wednesday he was in no rush to complete a trade pact with China and insisted that any deal include protection for intellectual property, a major sticking point between the two sides during months of negotiations.

Trump says he looks forward to big trade deal with UK (Reuters) U.S. President Donald Trump on Thursday said he anticipated a “large scale” trade agreement with the United Kingdom, as the British government grapples with its Brexit deal with Europe and a possible delay.

Oil Erases Gains After U.S., China Said to Delay Trade Agreement (Bloomberg) Oil erased gains after a U.S.-China meeting to end the nations’ trade war was said to have been pushed back.

Overnight markets

Cda Benchmarks	Yield	Tsy Benchmarks	Yield
2 Year	1.673%	2 Year	2.465%
5 Year	1.663%	5 Year	2.432%
10 Year	1.766%	10 Year	2.627%
30 Year	2.046%	30 Year	3.018%

US Economic Data

8:30 AM	Import Price Index MoM, Feb 0.3% Actual 0.6% Prior -0.5%
	Import Price Index YoY, Feb -1.5% Actual -1.3% Prior -1.7%
	Initial Jobless Claims, Mar 9 Surv 225k Acutal 229k Prior 223k
	Continuing Claims, Mar 2 Surv 1763k Actual 1776k Prior 1755k
9:45 AM	Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, Mar 10 Prior 62.1
10:00 AM	New Home Sales MoM, Jan 0.2% Prior 3.7%
	New Home Sales, Jan 622k Prior 621k

Canadian Economic Data

8:30 AM	New Housing Price Index MoM, Jan Surv 0.0% Actual -0.1% Prior 0.0%
	New Housing Price Index YoY, Jan Surv 0.0% -0.1% Prior 0.0%

Disclosure and Disclaimer

The following sources of information have been, or may have been, used partially or in their entirety to compile the herein provided CTI Capital Securities Inc. (“CTI Capital”) ‘Morning Comments.’ CTI Capital believes these sources to be generally reliable, however, as said sources are varied and from third parties, CTI Capital cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of said information: Canadian Press (CP); Bloomberg News (BN); Wall Street Journal (WSJ); Stone & McCarthy Research Associates (SMRA); New York Times (NYT); Financial Times (FT); Market News International (MNI); Globe and Mail; Associated Press (AP); CNW Group (CNW); Reuters; Business News Network (BNN); Market Watch; and others.

Ivan Greenstein, Stephan Buu, Émile Bordeleau

Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilières Inc.

Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230

Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilieres Inc.

Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230