Commentaires
12/04/2019
Market Update
US tsys weaker on strong ‘risk on’ tone after better than expected China data (exports surged 14.2% in March vs 6.5% exp, +21% in Yuan terms), 10Y 2.54% (+4.7bps), S&P futures +16, crude 64.40 (+0.82), USD index reversing Thursday’s gains, -0.305 96.87. JPM beat Q1 estimates by a wide margin – $2.65 vs $2.35 with revenues rising to a record $29.9bln, while its NIM jumped to the highest in seven yrs at 2.57%. Wells Fargo eps $1.20 vs $1.09, shares up 0.67% pre-mkt. GOCs weaker, curve another 2bps steeper led by the 10Y, which saw some fairly severe selling yesterday afternoon on the back of 2 blocks of 1500 contracts in CGBs. Provi spreads ~2bps tighter, Ont 28s 70.5. Ontario 2019 budget neutral for spds, borrowings to decline from $36bln from $39.6bln, with balanced budget forecast by 2024.
News headlines
China March exports rebound to five-month high but imports fall more than expected (Reuters) China’s exports rebounded in March but imports shrank for a fourth straight month and at a sharper pace, painting a mixed picture of the economy as trade talks with the United States reach their endgame.
Stocks Rise, Bonds Drop on China Data; Oil Climbs: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg) Stocks turned higher on Friday and Treasuries slipped with the dollar as credit growth in China and the first major U.S. bank earnings both beat expectations.
TSX futures lifted by rising oil (Reuters) Stock futures pointed to a higher opening for Canada’s main stock index on Friday, as oil prices rose following supply cuts from Venezuela, Libya and Iran.
U.S. EPA to revise proposed freeze of vehicle fuel economy rules (Reuters) The head of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency said on Thursday the agency would revise its proposed freeze of vehicle fuel economy standards before unveiling its final regulation in the coming months.
Oil Heads for Sixth Weekly Gain Amid Falling OPEC Production (Bloomberg) Oil headed for a sixth weekly increase as falling OPEC production tightened global crude markets, offsetting concerns that slower economic growth will weaken demand.
Futures rise as JPMorgan kicks off earnings season on strong note (Reuters) U.S. stock index futures rose on Friday after JPMorgan kicked off first-quarter earnings season on a strong note, while signs of stabilization in China’s economy helped ease global growth concerns.
Ontario charts five-year path back to balance while avoiding austerity (BNN) Ontario is charting a path back to balance but the Ford government’s inaugural budget will keep voters waiting until after the next election before getting the books in the black.
Overnight markets
| Cda Benchmarks | Yield | Tsy Benchmarks | Yield |
| 2 Year | 1.624% | 2 Year | 2.391% |
| 5 Year | 1.636% | 5 Year | 2.363% |
| 10 Year | 1.769% | 10 Year | 2.544% |
| 30 Year | 2.054% | 30 Year | 2.961% |
US Economic Data
| 8:30 AM | Teranet/National Bank HPI MoM, Mar Actual -0.3% Prior -0.4% |
| Import Price Index MoM, Mar Surv 0.4% Actual 0.6% Prior 0.6% | |
| Import Price Index YoY, Mar Surv -0.6% Actual 0.0% Prior -1.3% | |
| 10:00 AM | U. of Mich. Sentiment, Apr P Surv 98.2 Prior 98.4 |
Canadian Economic Data
There is no Canadian economic data for today.
Disclosure and Disclaimer
The following sources of information have been, or may have been, used partially or in their entirety to compile the herein provided CTI Capital Securities Inc. (“CTI Capital”) ‘Morning Comments.’ CTI Capital believes these sources to be generally reliable, however, as said sources are varied and from third parties, CTI Capital cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of said information: Canadian Press (CP); Bloomberg News (BN); Wall Street Journal (WSJ); Stone & McCarthy Research Associates (SMRA); New York Times (NYT); Financial Times (FT); Market News International (MNI); Globe and Mail; Associated Press (AP); CNW Group (CNW); Reuters; Business News Network (BNN); Market Watch; and others.
Ivan Greenstein, Stephan Buu, Émile Bordeleau
Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilières Inc.
Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230
Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilieres Inc.
Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230
11/04/2019
Market Update
US tsys trading lower, 10Y 2.485% (+2bps), low volume in TY futures (228k). US equity futures slightly higher, crude lower 64.04 (-0.88). Core EGBs mixed, 10Y gilt yields at three-week high following Brexit extension until October 31st. US March PPI and claims on deck, and US $156bln 30Y T-bond auction at 1:00ET. GOCs lower, lagging the decline in tsys by 0.5bps, 10Y 1.69%. CAD 0.4% lower 1.3377 with lower crude. Ontario budget today, expected to address $14.5bln deficit as well as its ~$350bln debt burden
News headlines
U.S., China agree to establish trade deal enforcement offices: Mnuchin (Reuters) The United States and China have largely agreed on a mechanism to police any trade agreement they reach, including establishing new “enforcement offices,” U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said on Wednesday.
U.S. Futures Edge Up With Europe Stocks; Oil Slips: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg) U.S. equity-index futures turned higher with European shares after a downbeat session in Asia. Treasuries edged down while the dollar was steady.
Oil Retreats as Swelling U.S. Stockpiles Undermine OPEC’s Cuts (Bloomberg) Oil retreated from a five-month high as an increase in U.S. crude inventories overshadowed OPEC’s efforts to reduce production.
Fed Signals a Year of Patience Is Ahead With a Grab Bag of Growth Risks (Bloomberg)
China producer inflation picks up for first time in nine months, eases deflation worries (Reuters) China’s factory-gate inflation picked up for the first time in nine months in March, lifted by price rises in global commodities as well as signs that government efforts to boost the economy may be putting a floor under domestic demand.
CANADA STOCKS-TSX futures point to a higher open (Reuters) Stock futures pointed to higher opening for Canada’s main index on Thursday, building on the previous day’s gains as investors look forward to earnings season.
Growth woes, trade tension douse rally in Asian shares (Reuters) Asian stocks stepped back from near eight-month highs on Thursday and the dollar eased as cautious European and U.S. central banks reinforced investors’ worries about the slowing global economy and trade protectionism.
Overnight markets
| Cda Benchmarks | Yield | Tsy Benchmarks | Yield |
| 2 Year | 1.573% | 2 Year | 2.332% |
| 5 Year | 1.566% | 5 Year | 2.287% |
| 10 Year | 1.695% | 10 Year | 2.481% |
| 30 Year | 1.987% | 30 Year | 2.906% |
US Economic Data
| 8:30 AM | PPI Final Demand MoM, Mar Surv 0.3% Prior 0.1% |
| PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM, Mar Surv 0.2% Prior 0.1% | |
| PPI Final Demand YoY, Mar Surv 1.9% Prior 1.9% | |
| PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY, Mar Surv 2.4% Prior 2.5% | |
| Initial Jobless Claims, Apr 6 Surv 210k Prior 202k | |
| Continuing Claims, Mar 30 Surv 1735k Prior 1717k | |
| 9:45 AM | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, Apr 7 Prior 58.9 |
Canadian Economic Data
| 8:30 AM | New Housing Price Index MoM, Feb Surv 0.0% Prior -0.1% |
Disclosure and Disclaimer
The following sources of information have been, or may have been, used partially or in their entirety to compile the herein provided CTI Capital Securities Inc. (“CTI Capital”) ‘Morning Comments.’ CTI Capital believes these sources to be generally reliable, however, as said sources are varied and from third parties, CTI Capital cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of said information: Canadian Press (CP); Bloomberg News (BN); Wall Street Journal (WSJ); Stone & McCarthy Research Associates (SMRA); New York Times (NYT); Financial Times (FT); Market News International (MNI); Globe and Mail; Associated Press (AP); CNW Group (CNW); Reuters; Business News Network (BNN); Market Watch; and others.
Ivan Greenstein, Stephan Buu, Émile Bordeleau
Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilières Inc.
Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230
Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilieres Inc.
Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230
10/04/2019
Market Update
US tsys trading slightly higher on low volume in TY futures (275k), 10Y 2.50%. March CPI and FOMC minutes this afternoon. Equities rebounding from Tuesday’s losses, S&P futures +7. Crude higher, 64.35 (+0.38) before DOE crude inventory data. OPEC’s latest monthly report points to tighter oil market due to supply cuts and Venezuela situation. ECB left rates unch as expected, no further details on planned TLTROs announced five weeks ago. Fed nominee Stephen Moore speaking on FOX business said the Dec rate increase was unwise, should be reversed. GOCs higher, 1bp tighter vs tsys in the 10Y, the 10Y Can/US the narrowest in five weeks on GOC underperformance. At noon the BOC auctions $3.0bln in 2Y bonds – reopened 1.75% May 21s with the 2Y (Feb 21) yield 1.60% -unch from the last auction on March 21st with the May/2Y roll slightly tighter -0.4/-0.5 vs -0.6 last auction.
News headlines
Stocks Rise as Treasury Yields Dip; Dollar Steady: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg) Stocks in Europe gained along with U.S. equity futures on what’s set to be a busy day, with a European Central Bank rates decision and American inflation data among events on investors’ radar. Treasuries rose and the dollar was steady.
ECB Keeps Policy Unchanged as Euro-Area Economy Faces New Risks (Bloomberg) European Central Bank officials reiterated their pledge to keep interest rates at record lows, giving themselves time to assess prospects for the euro area’s weakened economy as it confronts new risks.
Tech in driver’s seat as S&P 500 flirts with record (Reuters) Technology stocks are extending their leadership on Wall Street as the S&P 500 trades near its all-time high, with Advanced Micro Devices Inc , Xilinx Inc and Xerox Corp among the top performers since last December’s sell-off that stirred fear of an end to a decade-long bull market.
CANADA STOCKS-TSX futures gain on rising crude prices (Reuters) Stock futures pointed to a higher opening for Canada’s main stock index on Wednesday as tightening supply boosted oil prices.
Oil Near Five-Month High as U.S. Gasoline Stockpiles Decline (Bloomberg) Oil rose in New York, trading near a five-month high, after industry data indicated a sharp decline in American gasoline inventories last week.
PRECIOUS-Gold steadies near two-week peak on economic growth fears (Reuters) Gold held steady near a two-week high on Wednesday as world equities retreated after the International Monetary Fund (IMF) cut its global growth outlook ahead of the release of minutes from the U.S. Federal Reserve’s March meeting.
U.S. bank CEOs face off with Congress for the first time since financial crisis (Reuters) Chief executives of some of the largest U.S. banks will testify before Congress on Wednesday, giving lawmakers their first opportunity to grill the lenders since the 2007-2009 financial crisis.
Overnight markets
| Cda Benchmarks | Yield | Tsy Benchmarks | Yield |
| 2 Year | 1.604% | 2 Year | 2.34% |
| 5 Year | 1.596% | 5 Year | 2.304% |
| 10 Year | 1.727% | 10 Year | 2.501% |
| 30 Year | 2.008% | 30 Year | 2.913% |
US Economic Data
| 7:00 AM | MBA Mortgage Applications, Apr 5 Actual -5.6% Prior 18.6% |
| 8:30 AM | CPI MoM, Mar Surv 0.4% Actual 0.4% Prior 0.2% |
| CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM, Mar Surv 0.2% Actual 0.1% Prior 0.1% | |
| CPI YoY, Mar Surv 1.8% Actual 1.9% Prior 1.5% | |
| CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY, Mar Surv 2.1% Actual 2.0% Prior 2.1% | |
| CPI Core Index SA, Mar Surv 261.465 Actual 261.374 Prior 260.989 | |
| CPI Index NSA, Mar Surv 254.167 Actual 254.202 Prior 252.776 | |
| 2:00 PM | Monthly Budget Statement, Mar Surv -$181.0b Prior -$208.7b |
Canadian Economic Data
There is no Canadian economic data for today.
Disclosure and Disclaimer
The following sources of information have been, or may have been, used partially or in their entirety to compile the herein provided CTI Capital Securities Inc. (“CTI Capital”) ‘Morning Comments.’ CTI Capital believes these sources to be generally reliable, however, as said sources are varied and from third parties, CTI Capital cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of said information: Canadian Press (CP); Bloomberg News (BN); Wall Street Journal (WSJ); Stone & McCarthy Research Associates (SMRA); New York Times (NYT); Financial Times (FT); Market News International (MNI); Globe and Mail; Associated Press (AP); CNW Group (CNW); Reuters; Business News Network (BNN); Market Watch; and others.
Ivan Greenstein, Stephan Buu, Émile Bordeleau
Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilières Inc.
Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230
Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilieres Inc.
Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230