Commentaires

Market Update

US tsys slightly higher, yields 0.5bps lower, S&P futures -3.5., crude 64.44 unch after yest 2.0% gain. Muted volume in TY futures (285k) with little in the way of macro drivers.  Bunds/gilts recovering form early plunge after news that Merkel had softened her stance on the Irish backstop limit, later denied by Germany. GOCs little changed, 10Y 1.73% , 10Y continues to cheapen on the curve, 10s30s snapped in 1.5bps yest following long TRP deal.  TRP priced $1bln 2049s @ 234 which looked to be an 8-10bp concession.

News headlines

U.S. Futures Drift With Bonds; Europe Stocks Rise: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg) U.S. equity futures were steady and European shares climbed as investors appeared to shrug off threats from President Donald Trump for new tariffs on goods produced in the EU. Treasuries steadied alongside the dollar.

TSX futures point to lower opening after six-day rally (Reuters) Stock futures pointed to a lower opening for Canada’s main stock index on Tuesday after a six-day run of gains.

Potential U.S. auto tariffs would hurt Germany, Japan, Korea: Moody’s (Reuters) Ratings firm Moody’s said on Tuesday that potential auto tariffs by the United States would be a risk to global growth, hindering economic momentum in Germany, Japan and Korea.

Oil Holds Near Five-Month High Amid Libya, Iran Political Risks (Bloomberg) Oil in New York held near the highest level since late October as an escalation of geopolitical tensions in Libya and Iran fanned concerns over supplies.

Canadian dollar is ‘world’s most frustrating currency’: Strategist (BNN) The loonie’s failure to keep pace with the surge in crude oil prices this year was thrust into the spotlight Tuesday morning by a prominent strategist.

EU plans for own retaliation in aircraft dispute with U.S. (Reuters) The U.S. Trade Representative here on Monday proposed a range of EU products ranging from large commercial aircraft and parts to dairy products and wine to target as retaliation for subsidies given to Airbus.

China to review anti-dumping tariffs on U.S. distillers grains: document (Reuters) China’s Ministry of Commerce is set to review its anti-dumping tariffs on imports from the United States of distillers grains (DDGS), an animal feed ingredient, according to a document issued by the China Alcoholic Drinks Association.

Overnight markets

Cda Benchmarks	Yield	Tsy Benchmarks	Yield
2 Year	1.621%	2 Year	2.358%
5 Year	1.605%	5 Year	2.326%
10 Year	1.737%	10 Year	2.52%
30 Year	2.006%	30 Year	2.93%

US Economic Data

6:00 AM	NFIB Small Business Optimism, Mar Surv 102.0 Actual 101.8 Prior 101.7
10:00 AM	JOLTS Job Openings, Feb Surv 7550 Prior 7581

Canadian Economic Data

There is no Canadian economic data for today.

Disclosure and Disclaimer

The following sources of information have been, or may have been, used partially or in their entirety to compile the herein provided CTI Capital Securities Inc. (“CTI Capital”) ‘Morning Comments.’ CTI Capital believes these sources to be generally reliable, however, as said sources are varied and from third parties, CTI Capital cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of said information: Canadian Press (CP); Bloomberg News (BN); Wall Street Journal (WSJ); Stone & McCarthy Research Associates (SMRA); New York Times (NYT); Financial Times (FT); Market News International (MNI); Globe and Mail; Associated Press (AP); CNW Group (CNW); Reuters; Business News Network (BNN); Market Watch; and others.

Ivan Greenstein, Stephan Buu, Émile Bordeleau

Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilières Inc.

Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230

Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilieres Inc.

Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230

Market Update

US tsy & GOC yields slightly higher, US 10Y 2.50%, low volume in TY futures (278k). Limited move in EGBs, 10Y bund unch 0.001%, UK gilts slightly higher before key EU Brexit summit. Greece outperforming with 10Y Greece/Bund spread at two-month lows. S&P futures slightly lower, crude extending gains above $63 on OPEC supply cuts, unrest in Libya and US sanctions. US Factory Orders/Durable Goods on tap, focus this week on CPI Wed and FOMC minutes on Thursday. Big week for Cdn corp issuance – $3.4bln across 5 issuers including Hydro One, GTAA, Altagas, Pembina, and Reliance LP. Low fills (~7% last week) illustrate demand remains robust across the maturity spectrum despite low all in yields, firm spreads and a flat curve.   

News headlines

Stocks Drift With Bonds; Oil Edges Higher on Libya: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg) Investors kicked off the week in a cautious mood, with stocks and government bonds drifting as progress toward a trade deal between America and China continued to drag. Oil rose as fighting in Libya raised the risk of supply outages.

CANADA STOCKS-TSX futures slightly higher as oil at 5-month high  (Reuters) Stock futures for Canada’s main stock index edged higher on Monday, as crude oil prices rose to their highest level since November 2018 on OPEC supply cuts, U.S. sanctions against Iran and Venezuela and fighting in Libya.

Investors hit pause as central bank and Brexit risks loom (Reuters) World stocks paused on Monday after a strong recent run, as potential flashpoints including a crucial Brexit summit and central bank meetings loomed, and investors began to look ahead to an earnings season that may be disappointing.

Oil climbs to five-month high on OPEC cuts, U.S. sanctions and Libya fighting (Reuters) Oil prices rose to their highest level since November 2018 on Monday, driven by OPEC supply cuts, U.S. sanctions against Iran and Venezuela and fighting in Libya as well as strong U.S. jobs data.

Saudi Arabia says May will be key to decide on extending oil supply cuts (Reuters) The Saudi energy minister on Monday said it was premature to say whether a consensus existed among OPEC and its allies to extend oil supply cuts but a meeting next month would be key.

Euro edges higher from one-month lows; outlook cloudy (Reuters) The euro edged higher from a one-month low hit last week as investors squared positions before a European Central Bank meeting this week where policymakers may strike a cautious note on the region’s growth outlook.

May to Meet Merkel, Macron Ahead of Key EU Summit: Brexit Update (Bloomberg) Theresa May will meet German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Emmanuel Macron on Tuesday, a day before she makes her case for a Brexit extension at a key EU summit in Brussels. She needs to show she has a clear plan to ratify the divorce deal; an official said the government could make a compromise offer to the opposition Labour Party on Monday.

Overnight markets

Cda Benchmarks	Yield	Tsy Benchmarks	Yield
2 Year	1.592%	2 Year	2.337%
5 Year	1.573%	5 Year	2.305%
10 Year	1.704%	10 Year	2.499%
30 Year	1.976%	30 Year	2.909%

US Economic Data

10:00 AM	Factory Orders, Feb Surv -0.5% Prior 0.1%
	Durable Goods Orders, Feb F Surv -1.6% Prior -1.6%
	Durables Ex Transportation, Feb F Surv 0.1% Prior 0.1%
	Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air, Feb F Prior -0.1%
	Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air, Feb F Prior 0.0%

Canadian Economic Data

8:15 AM	Housing Starts, Mar Surv 196.0k Actual 192.5k Prior 173.2k
8:30 AM	Building Permits MoM, Feb Surv 2.0% Actual -5.7% Prior -5.5%

Disclosure and Disclaimer

The following sources of information have been, or may have been, used partially or in their entirety to compile the herein provided CTI Capital Securities Inc. (“CTI Capital”) ‘Morning Comments.’ CTI Capital believes these sources to be generally reliable, however, as said sources are varied and from third parties, CTI Capital cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of said information: Canadian Press (CP); Bloomberg News (BN); Wall Street Journal (WSJ); Stone & McCarthy Research Associates (SMRA); New York Times (NYT); Financial Times (FT); Market News International (MNI); Globe and Mail; Associated Press (AP); CNW Group (CNW); Reuters; Business News Network (BNN); Market Watch; and others.

Ivan Greenstein, Stephan Buu, Émile Bordeleau

Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilières Inc.

Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230

Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilieres Inc.

Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230

Market Update

US tsys lower ahead of March nonfarm payrolls, US 10Y 2.535% (+2bps). US equity futures slightly higher (S&P +2.75), crude unch at $62, up for a fifth straight week.  Median estimate is for 177k increase in payrolls after a 20k rise in Feb, with the unemployment rate unch at 3.8% and AHE  +0.3%/3.4% y/y. UK gilts have sold off and the curve is steeper, yields 3-5bps higher after PM May asked the EU to delay Brexit until June 30th. GOCs unch before March Employment – 6k exp after huge 56k increase in Feb, Jan-Feb were the strongest two-month increases to start the year since 1981. The BOC announced details of next week’s two year auction – reopening the May 2021 issue for $3bln ($9bln outstanding) , the current May21/2Y roll -0.3/-0.6. , 2s5s is 1bp inverted.

News headlines

Stocks Edge Higher With Bond Yields on Trade Hopes: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg) Global stocks edged higher while Treasuries slipped following remarks from both China and the U.S. that progress was being made in trade talks. The dollar rose hours before Friday’s report on the American job market.

TSX futures little changed ahead of employment data (Reuters) Stock futures for Canada’s main stock index were flat on Friday, ahead of keenly awaited employment reports from the United States and Canada.

U.S. job growth seen accelerating from 17-month trough (Reuters) U.S. employment growth likely rebounded from a 17-month low in March as milder weather boosted activity in sectors like construction, which could further allay fears of a sharp slowdown in economic growth in the first quarter.

Trump says U.S.-China trade deal may be reached in four weeks (Reuters) U.S. President Donald Trump said on Thursday the United States and China were close to a trade deal that could be announced within four weeks, while warning Beijing that it would be difficult to allow trade to continue without a pact.

Oil in Longest Run of Weekly Gains Since 2017 on Tight Supply (Bloomberg) Oil in New York headed for the longest weekly winning streak since November 2017 as crises from Venezuela to Libya threatened supplies, while optimism over U.S.-China trade talks buoyed the outlook for demand.

Trade optimism supports dollar ahead of U.S. jobs report (Reuters) Optimism for a U.S.-China trade deal helped the dollar hit a three-week high against the yen on Friday, although moves in broader foreign exchange markets were limited as investors saw a lot of headlines but no conclusions out of the trade talks.

Venezuela Blackouts Cut Oil Output by Half During March (Bloomberg) Power failures that plunged Venezuela into darkness for much of March also briefly slashed the country’s crude production by half, according to people familiar with the situation.

Overnight markets

Cda Benchmarks	Yield	Tsy Benchmarks	Yield
2 Year	1.591%	2 Year	2.358%
5 Year	1.582%	5 Year	2.342%
10 Year	1.714%	10 Year	2.537%
30 Year	1.985%	30 Year	2.943%

US Economic Data

8:30 AM	Change in Nonfarm Payrolls, Mar Surv 177k Prior 20k
	Change in Manufact. Payrolls, Mar Surv 10k Prior 4k
	Unemployment Rate, Mar Surv 3.8% Prior 3.8%
	Average Hourly Earnings MoM, Mar Surv 0.3% Prior 0.4%
	Average Hourly Earnings YoY, Mar Surv 3.4% Prior 3.4%

Canadian Economic Data

8:30 AM	Net Change in Employment, Mar Surv 6.0k Prior 55.9k
	Unemployment Rate, Mar Surv 5.8% Prior 5.8%
	Hourly Wage Rate Permanent Employees YoY, Mar Surv 2.2% Prior 2.2%
	Participation Rate, Mar Surv 65.7 Prior 65.8

Disclosure and Disclaimer

Disclosure and Disclaimer

The following sources of information have been, or may have been, used partially or in their entirety to compile the herein provided CTI Capital Securities Inc. (“CTI Capital”) ‘Morning Comments.’ CTI Capital believes these sources to be generally reliable, however, as said sources are varied and from third parties, CTI Capital cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of said information: Canadian Press (CP); Bloomberg News (BN); Wall Street Journal (WSJ); Stone & McCarthy Research Associates (SMRA); New York Times (NYT); Financial Times (FT); Market News International (MNI); Globe and Mail; Associated Press (AP); CNW Group (CNW); Reuters; Business News Network (BNN); Market Watch; and others.

Ivan Greenstein, Stephan Buu, Émile Bordeleau

Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilières Inc.

Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230

Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilieres Inc.

Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230