Commentaires
20/03/2019
Market Update
US tsys trading higher on moderate futures volume (198k TY1) 10Y below 2.60% (2.59%) , ahead of FOMC policy announcement later this aft, tsy curve flatter 2s10s 13.6bps narrowest since Jan 29th. UK gilts spiking as PM May asked the EU for a Brexit deadline until June 39th. GOCs lagging the rally in tsys by 1bp in 10s. Canada budget highlights – deficit projection for this FY ~$3bln lower at $14.9bln, unch for 2020FY at $19.8bln. The DMS outlines an $19bln in additional issuance to $119bln for FY 19/20, with the increase falling on the short end and the 30Y sector, with one less 10Y & rrb auction.
News headlines
Fed’s balance sheet plan, economic outlook under microscope (Reuters) The U.S. Federal Reserve on Wednesday is expected to hold interest rates steady, shave the number of hikes projected for the rest of the year, and release long-awaited details of a plan to end the monthly reduction of its massive balance sheet.
Stocks Decline, U.S. Futures Fluctuate Before Fed: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg) U.S. equity-index futures drifted and European shares fell Wednesday as investors adopted a cautious stance before the Federal Reserve policy decision and awaited further news on U.S.-China trade talks, where negotiators remain at odds. Ten-year Treasury yields slipped.
Oil’s Rally Stuck Near $59 as U.S.-China Trade Jitters Return (Bloomberg) Oil’s rally stuttered as uncertainty over the status of trade negotiations between the U.S. and China stoked concerns over global economic growth.
Canada lifts bond borrowing ahead of election as maturities rise (BNN) Canada plans to increase federal bond issuance by almost 20 per cent next fiscal year to finance a growing budget deficit and a jump in debt maturities.
Canada offers stimulus budget, but may be too little to re-elect Trudeau government (Reuters) Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government, seeking to move past a political crisis threatening its re-election, lavished new spending on middle-class voters in its budget on Tuesday, but the measures may be spread too thin to move the needle before October’s vote.
Dollar rises on trade war angst before Fed (Reuters) The dollar gained on Wednesday, attracting safe-haven bids after reports of further tension in U.S.-China trade negotiations, but its gains were slight, with caution expected from the Federal Reserve at its policy meeting later in the day.
Abe describes BOJ’s inflation goal as means to spur growth (Reuters) Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said on Wednesday he sees the central bank’s inflation target as a means to achieve the more important goal of reviving the economy, in a sign that firing up inflation may no longer be a priority for the government.
EU leaders will ask ministers to clear negotiating mandates for U.S. trade talks (Reuters) European Union leaders will ask their trade ministers on Friday to quickly approve negotiating mandates for the European Commission to start formal trade talks with the United States, draft conclusions showed.
Overnight markets
| Cda Benchmarks | Yield | Tsy Benchmarks | Yield |
| 2 Year | 1.647% | 2 Year | 2.462% |
| 5 Year | 1.622% | 5 Year | 2.414% |
| 10 Year | 1.723% | 10 Year | 2.6% |
| 30 Year | 2.009% | 30 Year | 3.012% |
US Economic Data
| 7:00 AM | MBA Mortgage Applications, Mar 15 Actual 1.6% Prior 2.3% |
| 2:00 PM | FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound), Mar 20 Surv 2.50% Prior 2.50% |
| FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound), Mar 20 Surv 2.25% Prior 2.25% | |
| Interest Rate on Excess Reserves, Mar 21 Surv 2.40% Prior 2.40% |
Canadian Economic Data
There is no Canadian economic data for today.
Disclosure and Disclaimer
The following sources of information have been, or may have been, used partially or in their entirety to compile the herein provided CTI Capital Securities Inc. (“CTI Capital”) ‘Morning Comments.’ CTI Capital believes these sources to be generally reliable, however, as said sources are varied and from third parties, CTI Capital cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of said information: Canadian Press (CP); Bloomberg News (BN); Wall Street Journal (WSJ); Stone & McCarthy Research Associates (SMRA); New York Times (NYT); Financial Times (FT); Market News International (MNI); Globe and Mail; Associated Press (AP); CNW Group (CNW); Reuters; Business News Network (BNN); Market Watch; and others.
Ivan Greenstein, Stephan Buu, Émile Bordeleau
Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilières Inc.
Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230
Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilieres Inc.
Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230
19/03/2019
Market Update
After an inside session Monday, 30-yr futures look slightly more lively Tuesday, with bulls keeping an eye on the Friday high at 146-17 for direction. Tsys trading mixed, mildly steeper curves rotating around steady 10s at the moment. Long end reversed course, extended low end of range just as US$ index bounced recently. Rebound amid very light volume w/accts close to sidelines ahead Wed’s FOMC and ongoing Brexit headlines. Yld curves inch steeper; US$ index off recent lows (DXY -.158, 96.367 vs. 96.291L); equities firmer/near highs (SPX +9.75, 2850.25).
News headlines
Stocks Gain as Traders Await Fed; Dollar Steadies: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg) U.S. equity futures climbed alongside European stocks on Tuesday, while Asian shares drifted as investors marked time ahead of this week’s slew of central bank decisions. The dollar steadied and Treasuries edged higher.
Oil Rises After OPEC+ Reaffirms Commitment to Production Cuts (Bloomberg) Oil in New York rose to the highest level this year after OPEC and its partners agreed to go beyond their pledged supply curbs in the coming months.
Budget to tout the economy, help distract from SNC ahead of election (BNN) The Trudeau government will attempt to set the stage for this fall’s election — and provide some distraction from the SNC-Lavalin affair — with today’s end-of-mandate budget touting the Liberals’ economic record.
Stock futures higher as Fed kicks off policy meeting (Reuters) U.S. stock futures rose slightly on Tuesday as investors anticipated a more accommodative policy stance from the U.S. Federal Reserve in a two-day policy meeting this week.
May prepares to seek long Brexit delay as speaker scuppers plans (BNN) Theresa May looked set to seek a long extension to the U.K.’s European Union membership after the House of Commons speaker torpedoed her plan to win Parliamentary approval for her deal to leave the bloc.
German economic advisors slash 2019 growth forecast to 0.8 percent (Reuters) A panel of advisers to the German government slashed its growth forecast for this year to 0.8 percent and warned risks related to Britain’s departure from the European Union, trade disputes and a sharper than expected slowdown in China remained high.
TSX set to climb on rising crude; budget, Fed meet in focus (Reuters) Futures pointed to a higher opening for Canada’s main stock index on Tuesday as crude prices rose, supported by OPEC supply cuts.
Overnight markets
| Cda Benchmarks | Yield | Tsy Benchmarks | Yield |
| 2 Year | 1.632% | 2 Year | 2.45% |
| 5 Year | 1.607% | 5 Year | 2.412% |
| 10 Year | 1.724% | 10 Year | 2.605% |
| 30 Year | 2.021% | 30 Year | 3.022% |
US Economic Data
| 10:00 AM | Factory Orders, Jan Surv 0.3% Prior 0.1% |
| Durable Goods Orders, Jan F Surv 0.4% Prior 0.4% | |
| Durables Ex Transportation, Jan F Surv -0.1% Prior -0.1% | |
| Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air, Jan F Surv 0.8% Prior 0.8% | |
| Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air, Jan F Prior 0.8% |
Canadian Economic Data
There is no Canadian economic data for today.
Disclosure and Disclaimer
The following sources of information have been, or may have been, used partially or in their entirety to compile the herein provided CTI Capital Securities Inc. (“CTI Capital”) ‘Morning Comments.’ CTI Capital believes these sources to be generally reliable, however, as said sources are varied and from third parties, CTI Capital cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of said information: Canadian Press (CP); Bloomberg News (BN); Wall Street Journal (WSJ); Stone & McCarthy Research Associates (SMRA); New York Times (NYT); Financial Times (FT); Market News International (MNI); Globe and Mail; Associated Press (AP); CNW Group (CNW); Reuters; Business News Network (BNN); Market Watch; and others.
Ivan Greenstein, Stephan Buu, Émile Bordeleau
Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilières Inc.
Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230
Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilieres Inc.
Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230
18/03/2019
Market Update
Tsys trading lower, 10Y 2.60% (+1bp), after Friday’s 5bp rally brought yields to the lowest levels since early Jan. Stock futures slightly higher, S&P extending gains after rising to new highs Friday above 2800. Core EGBs slightly lower, odds of third Brexit vote passing the House of Commons have increased as several conservative members have switched to support PM May. FOMC meeting Wed – Fed expected to leave rate unch but provide more insight as to plans to end its portfolio runoff. GOCs slightly lower, in line with tsys, 10Y 1.74%. Friday’s CPI and Retail Sales the focus this week as far as Cdn data.
News headlines
Stocks, Bonds Hold Gains at Start of Busy Week: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg) U.S. equity futures and European stocks posted modest gains at the start of a week filled with potentially significant catalysts from central bank meetings, geopolitical developments and economic data. Treasuries were little changed and the dollar drifted lower.
How Trudeau’s Faring Economically Ahead of His Election Budget (Bloomberg) Prime Minister Justin Trudeau delivers his fourth and final budget this week before Canada’s next election. The fiscal plan, to be unveiled Tuesday in the Ottawa legislature by Finance Minister Bill Morneau, comes with the economy in a soft patch, concerns building over the country’s competitiveness and the Liberal government trailing in opinion polls.
CANADA STOCKS-TSX futures flat as focus shifts to Fed meeting (Reuters) Futures for Canada’s main stock index were flat on Monday amid mounting speculation that the U.S. Federal Reserve will adopt a dovish tone at its two-day policy meeting from March 19.
China rejects ‘abnormal’ U.S. spying concerns as EU pushes trade (Reuters) China dismissed U.S. security warnings against its telecoms equipment maker Huawei as groundless and “abnormal” on Monday, as the Chinese government’s top diplomat went to Brussels to cool growing European frustration over trade.
U.S. heavy equipment makers feeling pain from tariffs, disputes: report (Reuters) U.S. makers of bulldozers and other heavy equipment are raising prices, losing sales and in some cases beginning to trim workers in response to the Trump administration’s protracted trade disputes with various countries, according to a new report.
Boeing shares fall again after probe report into FAA approval of 737 MAX (Reuters) Boeing Co shares fell by more than 2.2 percent early on Monday, after a pair of newspaper reports over the weekend raised more questions about the certification process for its 737 MAX jets before two recent deadly crashes.
Saudis urge OPEC+ to stick with cuts, but may delay decision (BNN) Saudi Arabia urged fellow producers in the OPEC+ coalition to persevere with output cuts but conceded the group may delay a meeting to consider the policy.
Overnight markets
| Cda Benchmarks | Yield | Tsy Benchmarks | Yield |
| 2 Year | 1.625% | 2 Year | 2.44% |
| 5 Year | 1.606% | 5 Year | 2.402% |
| 10 Year | 1.723% | 10 Year | 2.598% |
| 30 Year | 2.028% | 30 Year | 3.022% |
US Economic Data
| 10:00 AM | NAHB Housing Market Index, Mar Surv 63 Prior 62 |
Canadian Economic Data
| 8:30 AM | Int’l Securities Transactions, Jan Actual 28.40b Prior -18.96b |
| 10:00 AM | Bloomberg Nanos Confidence, Mar 15 Prior 55.5 |
Disclosure and Disclaimer
The following sources of information have been, or may have been, used partially or in their entirety to compile the herein provided CTI Capital Securities Inc. (“CTI Capital”) ‘Morning Comments.’ CTI Capital believes these sources to be generally reliable, however, as said sources are varied and from third parties, CTI Capital cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of said information: Canadian Press (CP); Bloomberg News (BN); Wall Street Journal (WSJ); Stone & McCarthy Research Associates (SMRA); New York Times (NYT); Financial Times (FT); Market News International (MNI); Globe and Mail; Associated Press (AP); CNW Group (CNW); Reuters; Business News Network (BNN); Market Watch; and others.
Ivan Greenstein, Stephan Buu, Émile Bordeleau
Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilières Inc.
Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230
Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilieres Inc.
Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230