Commentaires

Market Update

US tsys higher, 10Y 2.68% (-2bps) prices at highs of overnite session after ECB decision, will leave rates on hold thru this year at least, announcement of new long-term lending operations. German bund yields 1-2bps lower, 10Y 0.10% closing in on Feb low (0.085%). GOCs higher, in line with tsys, Can/US reaching new narrows after BOC statement, short end of the GOC curve trading below o/n rate. Corp spreads under pressure as supply picks up –  Northwestern Hydro (Al) priced $1.1bln in 2036 & 2038 bonds, Daimler issued $300mln 5Y @ 130.2, and Fortified Trust (BMO)  issued 5Y ABS @89.

News headlines

ECB unleashes support package for economy threatened by slowdown (BNN) The European Central Bank said it will offer more cheap loans to banks and keep interest rates at record-lows for longer as a weakening economy derails its plan to withdraw stimulus.

Futures edge lower as investors await fresh triggers (Reuters) U.S. stock futures ticked lower on Thursday after three days of declines, as investors sought fresh reasons to buy following a strong run in stocks this year.

CANADA STOCKS-Futures edge higher on oil gains (Reuters) Futures pointed to a slightly higher opening for Canada’s main stock index on Thursday as ongoing OPEC-led supply cuts and U.S. sanctions against exporters Venezuela and Iran supported oil prices.

PM admits ‘erosion of trust’ between office, Wilson-Raybould over SNC (BNN) Prime Minister Justin Trudeau says there was an « erosion of trust » between his office and former justice minister Jody Wilson-Raybould over the SNC-Lavalin case.

U.S. Futures, Europe Stocks Edge Up on Dovish ECB: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg) U.S. futures and European stocks erased losses as the ECB took a dovish turn at its latest policy meeting, underscoring concerns over the global economy but raising hopes policy makers will move to support growth. The euro fell.

Loonie drops to two-month low after Bank of Canada changes tone (BNN)  The Canadian dollar tumbled to the weakest level since the opening days of 2019, and the nation’s government-bond yields sank, after the Bank of Canada dropped its assertion that interest rates need to rise amid signs of slowing economic growth.

Overnight markets

Cda Benchmarks	Yield	Tsy Benchmarks	Yield
2 Year	1.665%	2 Year	2.508%
5 Year	1.684%	5 Year	2.486%
10 Year	1.814%	10 Year	2.681%
30 Year	2.107%	30 Year	3.062%

US Economic Data

7:30 AM	Challenger Job Cuts YoY, Feb Actual 117.2% Prior 18.7%
8:30 AM	Initial Jobless Claims, Mar 2 Surv 225k Actual 223k Prior 225k
8:30 AM	Continuing Claims, Feb 23 Surv 1772k Actual 1755k Prior 1805k
Nonfarm Productivity, 4Q Surv 1.5% Actual 1.9% Prior 2.3%
9:45 AM	Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, Mar 3 Prior 61.0
3:00 PM	Consumer Credit,  Jan Surv $17.000b Prior $16.554b

Canadian Economic Data

8:30 AM

Building Permits MoM, Jan Surv -5.0% Actual -5.5% Prior 6.0%

Disclosure and Disclaimer

The following sources of information have been, or may have been, used partially or in their entirety to compile the herein provided CTI Capital Securities Inc. (“CTI Capital”) ‘Morning Comments.’ CTI Capital believes these sources to be generally reliable, however, as said sources are varied and from third parties, CTI Capital cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of said information: Canadian Press (CP); Bloomberg News (BN); Wall Street Journal (WSJ); Stone & McCarthy Research Associates (SMRA); New York Times (NYT); Financial Times (FT); Market News International (MNI); Globe and Mail; Associated Press (AP); CNW Group (CNW); Reuters; Business News Network (BNN); Market Watch; and others.

Ivan Greenstein, Stephan Buu, Émile Bordeleau

Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilières Inc.

Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230

Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilieres Inc.

Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230

Market Update

US tsys higher, before ADP payrolls and Dec trade balance, 10Y 2.71% (-1bp). German bunds followed tsys higher in Asia as Aussie bonds surged on Q4 GDP miss (0.2% vs 0.3%). The OECD cuts its forecast for global growth this year for the second time, while warning that a no-deal Brexit would plunge the UK into recession with GDP falling below 1.0% for the first time in a decade. US equity futures lower, even as Chinese stocks rose for a 4th day to nine-month highs, crude -1.0% $56.  GOCs higher led by the 10Y @1.84% (-3bps), Can/US another 1-2bps tighter before BOC decision. Short end  yields trading at three month lows, 2Y 1.71% starting to price in rate cuts  with the o/n target rate is expected to remain at 1.75%.  Expect a dovish tilt to the statement, particularly after last week’s huge miss on Q4 GDP.

News headlines

Chinese stock surge fails to ignite broader markets rally (Reuters) Chinese shares surged to a nine-month high on Wednesday bolstered by hopes of more stimulus measures from Beijing, but the rally failed to fuel broader gains in global markets as investors waited for fresh central bank cues.

Stocks future subdued due to lack of fresh catalysts (Reuters) U.S. stock futures were subdued on Wednesday in the absence of fresh developments on trade, with investors taking a step back after a strong run in equities since the start of the year.

UK reaches ‘basic agreement’ on no-deal Brexit tariffs, tough choices remain (Reuters) Britain’s government has reached a general agreement on import tariffs if it leaves the European Union without a deal, trade minister Liam Fox said on Wednesday, but the business minister warned that tough choices remained.

CANADA STOCKS-TSX futures flat as investors await interest rate decision (Reuters) Stock futures pointed to a flat opening for Canada’s main stock index on Wednesday, ahead of the Bank of Canada’s interest rate decision.

Economic slump prompts rethink of Bank of Canada’s rate path (BNN) The Canadian economy’s sudden slowdown at the end of last year is set to keep the Bank of Canada from raising interest rates Wednesday, with investors looking for clues as to whether it pushes Governor Stephen Poloz off his hiking path altogether.

OECD cuts global outlook again and warns worse may be ahead (BNN) The global economy is suffering more than expected from trade tensions and political uncertainty which are clouding prospects particularly in Europe, according to a gloomy report from the OECD.

Oil Falls After Industry Report Shows Jump in Crude Stockpiles (Bloomberg) Oil declined after an industry report showed a massive increase in U.S. crude stockpiles, ahead of more comprehensive data from the government.

Overnight markets

Cda Benchmarks	Yield	Tsy Benchmarks	Yield
2 Year	1.715%	2 Year	2.539%
5 Year	1.729%	5 Year	2.518%
10 Year	1.848%	10 Year	2.706%
30 Year	2.135%	30 Year	3.075%

US Economic Data

7:00 AM	MBA Mortgage Applications, Mar 1 Actual -2.5% Prior 5.3%
8:15 AM	ADP Employment Change, Feb Surv 190k Actual 183k Prior 213k
8:30 AM	Trade Balance, Dec Surv -$57.9b Prior -$49.3b

Canadian Economic Data

8:30 AM	Int’l Merchandise Trade, Dec Surv -2.06b Prior -2.06b
	Labor Productivity QoQ, 4Q Surv -0.3% Prior 0.3%
10:00 AM	Bank of Canada Rate Decision, Mar 6 Surv 1.75% Prior 1.75%
	Ivey Purchasing Managers Index SA, Feb Prior 54.7

Disclosure and Disclaimer

The following sources of information have been, or may have been, used partially or in their entirety to compile the herein provided CTI Capital Securities Inc. (“CTI Capital”) ‘Morning Comments.’ CTI Capital believes these sources to be generally reliable, however, as said sources are varied and from third parties, CTI Capital cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of said information: Canadian Press (CP); Bloomberg News (BN); Wall Street Journal (WSJ); Stone & McCarthy Research Associates (SMRA); New York Times (NYT); Financial Times (FT); Market News International (MNI); Globe and Mail; Associated Press (AP); CNW Group (CNW); Reuters; Business News Network (BNN); Market Watch; and others.

Ivan Greenstein, Stephan Buu, Émile Bordeleau

Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilières Inc.

Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230

Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilieres Inc.

Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230

Market Update

US tsys weaker, yields 1-2bps higher, 10Y 2.74% (+1.5bps), low volume in TY futures (250k). Core Euro bonds lower, bunds pressured by large futures block trade ~7:00am at 162.97 (EU 820k/bp), while Eurozone Jan Retail Sales came in above exp (2.2% vs 2.1%) . Italian BTPs higher on stronger than exp Feb services PMI.  US equity futures higher, S&P +2.75 having given up earlier gains. ISM non-manuf index for Feb and Dec New Home Sales focus for US data today.  GOCs lower in line with tsys, no data ahead of BOC decision tomorrow. GOCs well bid yesterday all day, extending outperformance after resignation from Trudeau cabinet. Can/US 3-9bps tighter over the week led by the short end, GOC curve close to recent steeps 2s30s 42bps.  Provis opening unch, Alberta 10Y deal  rumoured

News headlines

Stocks Drift, Dollar Climbs as Trade News Awaited: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg) Global stocks drifted on Tuesday as investors searched for fresh direction after China lowered its growth forecasts and as speculation endured that a Sino-American trade deal is near. Treasuries declined while the dollar strengthened for a fifth day.

Stock futures inch higher, progress in U.S.-China trade talks in focus (Reuters) U.S. stock futures ticked higher on Tuesday, a day after the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 posted their biggest drop in nearly a month, as investors hoped for an U.S.-China trade deal as early as this month.

Oil Steadies as Traders Weigh China Response to Slowing Growth (Bloomberg) Oil steadied, reversing earlier losses, as traders assessed Chinese measures to protect economic growth in the world’s second-biggest fuel user.

Second Canadian minister quits over scandal, Trudeau taking it ‘seriously’ (Reuters) In a serious blow to Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, a second member of his Cabinet resigned on Monday, saying she had lost confidence in how the government had dealt with an escalating political scandal.

Trump scraps trade privilege for India; Delhi plays down impact (Reuters) U.S. President Donald Trump looked set to open a new front in his trade wars on Monday with a plan to end preferential trade treatment for India that allows duty-free entry for up to $5.6 billion worth of its exports to the United States.

China to slash taxes, boost lending to prop up slowing economy (Reuters) China sought to shore up its slowing economy through billions of dollars in planned tax cuts and infrastructure spending, with economic growth at its weakest in almost 30 years due to softer domestic demand and a trade war with the United States.

Canadian dollar hits near three-week low ahead of Bank of Canada rate decision this week (The Globe And Mail) The Canadian dollar weakened to its lowest point in nearly three weeks against its U.S. counterpart on Monday, as the greenback climbed broadly and investors bet the Bank of Canada would leave interest rates unchanged later this week.

Overnight markets

Cda Benchmarks	Yield	Tsy Benchmarks	Yield
2 Year	1.755%	2 Year	2.553%
5 Year	1.776%	5 Year	2.546%
10 Year	1.906%	10 Year	2.737%
30 Year	2.177%	30 Year	3.1%

US Economic Data

9:45 AM	Markit US Services PMI, Feb F Surv 56.2 Prior 56.2
	Markit US Composite PMI, Feb F Prior 55.8
10:00 AM	ISM Non-Manufacturing Index, Feb Surv 57.4 Prior 56.7
	New Home Sales, Dec Surv 600k Prior 657k
	New Home Sales MoM, Dec Surv -8.7% Prior 16.9%
2:00 PM	Monthly Budget Statement, Jan Surv $10.0b Prior -$13.5b

Canadian Economic Data

There is no Canadian economic data for today.

Disclosure and Disclaimer

The following sources of information have been, or may have been, used partially or in their entirety to compile the herein provided CTI Capital Securities Inc. (“CTI Capital”) ‘Morning Comments.’ CTI Capital believes these sources to be generally reliable, however, as said sources are varied and from third parties, CTI Capital cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of said information: Canadian Press (CP); Bloomberg News (BN); Wall Street Journal (WSJ); Stone & McCarthy Research Associates (SMRA); New York Times (NYT); Financial Times (FT); Market News International (MNI); Globe and Mail; Associated Press (AP); CNW Group (CNW); Reuters; Business News Network (BNN); Market Watch; and others.

Ivan Greenstein, Stephan Buu, Émile Bordeleau

Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilières Inc.

Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230

Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilieres Inc.

Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230