Commentaires

Market Update

Tsys trading firmer, 10Y 2.75% (-0.5bps), modest volume in TY futures (275k).   Equity futures higher on trade optimism, S&P +0.70%. data calendar thin with only Dec Const Spending. China and US close to trade pact that could lift all US tariffs in return for China promises to increase US imports, deal with intellectual property rights. Trump went after Fed Powell again for his hawkish stance, also noting the USD was too strong. GOCs off the lows , in line with tsys, 10Y 1.93%. 407 in the mkt with $800mln long tens (2030) & longs.

News headlines

Stocks, U.S. Futures Climb on Trade-Deal Optimism: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg) Stocks advanced globally alongside U.S. equity futures after the U.S. and China were said to close in on a trade deal that may end American tariffs in return for Chinese concessions. The dollar edged higher with Treasuries, while commodities were mixed.

CANADA STOCKS-TSX futures up on trade deal optimism (Reuters) Futures pointed to a higher opening for Canada’s main stock index on Monday on growing hopes that the United States and China will likely agree on a deal to end their eight-month-long trade war and eliminate tariffs levied against each other.

U.S., China said near deal that could end most U.S. tariffs (BNN) The U.S. and China are close to a trade deal that could lift most or all U.S. tariffs as long as Beijing follows through on pledges ranging from better protecting intellectual-property rights to buying a significant amount of American products, two people familiar with the discussions said.

Brexit bribe? UK PM May unveils $2.1 billion fund for Brexit-backing towns (Reuters) British Prime Minister Theresa May will on Monday set out plans for a 1.6 billion pound ($2.11 billion) fund to help to boost economic growth in Brexit-supporting communities with ministers denying it was a bribe to win support for her EU exit deal.

Oil Rises as U.S. China Trade Deal Nears While Supply Tightens (Bloomberg) Oil climbed as the U.S. and China were said to near a deal on trade that would underpin the outlook for crude demand, while supplies around the world showed signs of tightening.

Huawei CFO suing Canada over December arrest (Reuters) The lawyers for Huawei Chief Financial Officer Meng Wanzhou are suing the Canadian government, its border agency and federal police, alleging their client was detained, searched and interrogated for three hours in violation of her constitutional rights.

FOREX-Long dollar bets thrive in low volatility (Reuters) The dollar consolidated gains on Monday after posting its biggest monthly rise in four months, as low volatility prompted investors to buy the currency, particularly against the yen.

Overnight markets

Cda Benchmarks	Yield	Tsy Benchmarks	Yield
2 Year	1.76%	2 Year	2.561%
5 Year	1.798%	5 Year	2.558%
10 Year	1.928%	10 Year	2.751%
30 Year	2.196%	30 Year	3.117%

US Economic Data

10:00 AM

Construction Spending MoM, Dec Surv 0.1% Prior 0.8%

Canadian Economic Data

8:30 AM	MLI Leading Indicator MoM, Jan Prior -0.3%
10:00 AM	Bloomberg Nanos Confidence, Mar 1 Prior 54.4

Disclosure and Disclaimer

The following sources of information have been, or may have been, used partially or in their entirety to compile the herein provided CTI Capital Securities Inc. (“CTI Capital”) ‘Morning Comments.’ CTI Capital believes these sources to be generally reliable, however, as said sources are varied and from third parties, CTI Capital cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of said information: Canadian Press (CP); Bloomberg News (BN); Wall Street Journal (WSJ); Stone & McCarthy Research Associates (SMRA); New York Times (NYT); Financial Times (FT); Market News International (MNI); Globe and Mail; Associated Press (AP); CNW Group (CNW); Reuters; Business News Network (BNN); Market Watch; and others.

Ivan Greenstein, Stephan Buu, Émile Bordeleau

Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilières Inc.

Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230

Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilieres Inc.

Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230

Market Update

US tsys lower, yields 2-2.5bps higher, 10Y 2.735%, above avg volume in TY futures (470k). German bunds lower as well, 10Y bund 0.20%.  European stocks at the highest in five months, Euro Stoxx third straight weekly gain  despite weaker  Feb Eurozone PMI (62 vs 52.6 in Jan).  US Equity futures higher, S&P +17, Nasdaq +51 –  Ebay +3.4% announcing a strategic review, GAP +5% as it looks to spin off Old Navy. Focus on ISM Man., PCE & U. Michigan sentiment. GOCs lower before Q4 GDP – expected at 1.0% vs 2.0% Q3.

News headlines

Stocks Climb as China Lifts Spirits; Dollar Gains: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg) Stocks are ending the week on a positive note as the latest economic data from China offers reassurance to investors concerned about the global growth outlook, while prospects of a trade deal improved. Treasuries extended a decline and the dollar pushed higher for a third day.

Wall Street futures bounce as focus shifts to inflation, factory data (Reuters) U.S. stock index futures bounced on Friday, setting up Wall Street’s main indexes for gains at the open, with investors waiting for data on inflation and manufacturing activity.

Deepening downdraft chills factory activity (Reuters) Factories across the globe slammed on the brakes last month as demand crashed, hit by the ongoing U.S.-China trade war, slowing global growth and political uncertainty in Europe ahead of Britain’s imminent departure from the EU.

Euro zone’s triple-A bond drought persists after ECB steps away (Reuters) High-grade euro zone debt remains scarce even though the European Central Bank has stopped its huge purchases of new bonds, intensifying concerns that banks will face future collateral shortages and highlighting the need for safe assets.

No deal blow for Moon’s vision of ‘peace-driven’ Korean economy (Reuters) As word spread that a summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un was ending early in failure, some South Korean officials at a Hanoi media center watching a live feed of proceedings turned pale and made hurried calls.

Canada seen approving extradition hearing against Huawei executive (Reuters) Canada is likely to announce on Friday that an extradition hearing against a Huawei Technologies Co Ltd executive can proceed, legal experts said, worsening already icy relations with Beijing.

Alberta eases oil output curtailment as prices rise, glut wanes (BNN) Alberta increased the amount of crude its letting producers pump for a second time after local oil prices surged and inventories continued to decline.

U.S. said to ready final China trade deal as hawks urge caution (BNN) U.S. officials are preparing a final trade deal that President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping could sign in weeks, people familiar with the matter said, even as a debate continues in Washington over whether to push Beijing for more concessions.

Underlying Inflation Weakens as ECB Prepares for Crucial Meeting (Bloomberg) Underlying price pressures in the euro area remain weak, according to the latest inflation figures for the region, giving European Central Bank policy makers more to digest ahead of their crucial meeting next week.

Overnight markets

Cda Benchmarks	Yield	Tsy Benchmarks	Yield
2 Year	1.791%	2 Year	2.532%
5 Year	1.836%	5 Year	2.538%
10 Year	1.962%	10 Year	2.739%
30 Year	2.207%	30 Year	3.105%

US Economic Data

8:30 AM	Personal Income, Jan Surv 0.3%
	Personal Spending, Dec Surv -0.3% Prior 0.4%
	Real Personal Spending, Dec Surv -0.3% Prior 0.3%
	PCE Deflator YoY, Dec Surv 1.7% Prior 1.8%
	PCE Core MoM, Dec Surv 0.2% Prior 0.1%
	PCE Core YoY, Dec Surv 1.9% Prior 1.9%
9:45 AM	Markit US Manufacturing PMI, Feb F Surv 53.7 Prior 53.7
10:00 AM	ISM Manufacturing, Feb Surv 55.8 Prior 56.6
	ISM Prices Paid, Feb Surv 51.8 Prior 49.6
	U. of Mich. Sentiment, Feb F Surv 95.9 Prior 95.5

Canadian Economic Data

8:30 AM	Quarterly GDP Annualized, 4Q Surv 1.0% Actual 0.4% Prior 2.0%
	GDP MoM, Dec Surv 0.0% Actual -0.1%Prior -0.1%
	GDP YoY, Dec Surv 1.4% Actual 1.1% Prior 1.7%
	Markit Canada Manufacturing PMI, Feb Prior 53.0

Disclosure and Disclaimer

The following sources of information have been, or may have been, used partially or in their entirety to compile the herein provided CTI Capital Securities Inc. (“CTI Capital”) ‘Morning Comments.’ CTI Capital believes these sources to be generally reliable, however, as said sources are varied and from third parties, CTI Capital cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of said information: Canadian Press (CP); Bloomberg News (BN); Wall Street Journal (WSJ); Stone & McCarthy Research Associates (SMRA); New York Times (NYT); Financial Times (FT); Market News International (MNI); Globe and Mail; Associated Press (AP); CNW Group (CNW); Reuters; Business News Network (BNN); Market Watch; and others.

Ivan Greenstein, Stephan Buu, Émile Bordeleau

Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilières Inc.

Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230

Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilieres Inc.

Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230

Market Update

US tsys higher, yields 1.5-2.0 bps lower, 10Y 2.665% (-1.8bps),  US Q4 GDP expected at 2.2%  vs 3.4%  in Q3, forecasts were adjusted lower after a 1.2% plunge in Dec retail sales, the sharpest one month decline  since Sep 2009. A few Fed speakers today including Clarida saying the data has surprised to the downside somewhat since Dec. Fed chair Powell’s testimony yest reaffirmed patient stance, saying there are crosscurrents buffeting US economy.  GOCs higher, 10Y 1.90%,  in line with tsys, provis unch with rumours of QC 10Y supply.

News headlines

Stocks Fall After China Data Slip, Korea No-Deal: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg) Stocks dropped as disappointing manufacturing data out of China and an abrupt end to the U.S.-North Korea summit added to a litany of concerns facing investors. Havens, including gold and the yen, climbed.

Canada’s Trudeau disputes ex-minister’s charge she was pressured on SNC-Lavalin (Reuters) Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, rejecting an opposition call for his resignation, disputed allegations on Wednesday by his former justice minister that government officials inappropriately pressured her to help a major company avoid a corruption trial.

Consumers, weak exports seen curbing U.S. fourth-quarter growth (Reuters) The U.S. economy probably slowed in the fourth quarter, held back by softer consumer spending and weak exports, which could leave 2018 growth just shy of the Trump administration’s 3 percent annual target.

Alberta on track for $6.9B deficit, as oil sands power budget (BNN) A relentless increase in production from Alberta’s oil sands and higher crude prices in the first half of the year are powering the province’s budget through a pipeline shortage that has weighed on economic growth.

Canada’s inflation rate falls to 15-month lows on lower gas prices (BNN) Canada’s annual inflation fell in January to its lowest rate in 15 months as gasoline prices declined, giving the Bank of Canada plenty of breathing room on interest rates.

Canada stock futures dip as U.S.-North Korea summit ends with no deal (Reuters) Futures pointed to a lower opening for Canada’s main stock index on Thursday as U.S. President Donald Trump walked away from a nuclear deal at a summit with North Korea.

Overnight markets

Cda Benchmarks	Yield	Tsy Benchmarks	Yield
2 Year	1.762%	2 Year	2.48%
5 Year	1.785%	5 Year	2.46%
10 Year	1.896%	10 Year	2.664%
30 Year	2.143%	30 Year	3.05%

Canadian Economic Data

8:30 AM	Current Account Balance, 4Q Surv -$13.25b Prior -$10.34b
	Industrial Product Price MoM, Jan Surv 0.1% Prior -0.7%
	Raw Materials Price Index MoM, Jan Prior 3.8%

Disclosure and Disclaimer

The following sources of information have been, or may have been, used partially or in their entirety to compile the herein provided CTI Capital Securities Inc. (“CTI Capital”) ‘Morning Comments.’ CTI Capital believes these sources to be generally reliable, however, as said sources are varied and from third parties, CTI Capital cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of said information: Canadian Press (CP); Bloomberg News (BN); Wall Street Journal (WSJ); Stone & McCarthy Research Associates (SMRA); New York Times (NYT); Financial Times (FT); Market News International (MNI); Globe and Mail; Associated Press (AP); CNW Group (CNW); Reuters; Business News Network (BNN); Market Watch; and others.

Ivan Greenstein, Stephan Buu, Émile Bordeleau

Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilières Inc.

Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230

Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilieres Inc.

Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230