Commentaires

Market Update

Tsys trading  mixed, 1bp lower in short end with yields out the curve unch, 10Y 2.665%, above avg vol in TY futures (380k). Equities off recent lows, S&P futures (-7.75) , Walmart posting Q4 eps above est, stock up 5% pre-mkt. Core EGBs close to unch, bund curve bull flattening, after disappointing Eurozone eco data – German ZEW current conditions falling to lowest since 2014. GOCs slightly lower in line with tsys, 10Y 1.90%, the CAD slightly lower despite crude rising to the highest level in two months.

News headlines

New round of U.S.-China trade talks to begin in Washington on Tuesday (Reuters) A new round of talks between the United States and China to resolve their trade war will take place in Washington on Tuesday, with follow-up sessions at a higher level later in the week, the White House said.

Global shares slip from four-month high, Swedish crown slumps (Reuters) European and Asian shares hovered near four-month highs on Tuesday as investors took heart from some progress in Sino-U.S. trade talks, while the yen dribbled lower as Japan’s central bank said it could ease policy again.

WTO warns of global trade slowdown as indicator hits nine-year low (Reuters) A quarterly leading indicator of world merchandise trade slumped to its lowest reading in nine years on Tuesday, which should put policymakers on guard for a sharper slowdown if trade tensions continue, the World Trade Organization said on Tuesday.

Despite sanctions, Iran’s oil exports rise in early 2019: sources (Reuters) Iran’s exports of crude oil were higher than expected in January and are at least holding steady this month, according to tanker data and industry sources, as some customers have increased purchases due to waivers from U.S. sanctions.

British supermarkets battle to secure stocks as chaotic Brexit looms (Reuters) Britons could face shortages of fresh food, price rises and less variety if the country leaves the European Union next month without agreeing on trade terms, food industry officials say.

US STOCKS-Futures dip ahead of fresh U.S.-China trade talks (Reuters) U.S. stock index futures dipped on Tuesday, as investors started a holiday-shortened week on a cautious note ahead of a fresh round of trade talks between the United States and China.

Trudeau’s Top Aide Resigns Amid Reports of Meddling in SNC-Lavalin Probe (Bloomberg) Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has lost his top aide as the controversy over the government’s role in the SNC-Lavalin Group Inc. legal case deepens.

Overnight markets

Cda Benchmarks	Yield	Tsy Benchmarks	Yield
2 Year	1.781%	2 Year	2.504%
5 Year	1.805%	5 Year	2.486%
10 Year	1.9%	10 Year	2.661%
30 Year	2.154%	30 Year	2.995%

US Economic Data

10:00 AM

NAHB Housing Market Index, Feb Surv 59 Prior 58

Canadian Economic Data

10:00 AM

Bloomberg Nanos Confidence, Feb 15 Prior 54.3

Disclosure and Disclaimer

The following sources of information have been, or may have been, used partially or in their entirety to compile the herein provided CTI Capital Securities Inc. (“CTI Capital”) ‘Morning Comments.’ CTI Capital believes these sources to be generally reliable, however, as said sources are varied and from third parties, CTI Capital cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of said information: Canadian Press (CP); Bloomberg News (BN); Wall Street Journal (WSJ); Stone & McCarthy Research Associates (SMRA); New York Times (NYT); Financial Times (FT); Market News International (MNI); Globe and Mail; Associated Press (AP); CNW Group (CNW); Reuters; Business News Network (BNN); Market Watch; and others.

Ivan Greenstein, Stephan Buu, Émile Bordeleau

Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilières Inc.

Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230

Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilieres Inc.

Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230

Market Update

Having previously reached a (fragile) truce on NAFTA and currently appearing to make progress on bilateral trade talks with China, the US now seems to be opening up another front against the EU. The US has been accused of attempting to pressure EU members into opposing the Nord Stream 2 project, while President Donald Trump has stated that European automobile manufacturers are a national security threat. 10-Yr futures continue to trade in a contracting triangle formation with the near term upside focus on the Feb 8 high at 122-15 and the downside focus on the Feb 13 low at 121-21. A bullish break would open the Jan 3 high at 123-08. A break of the triangle base would suggest a run at the 50-dma & Jan 18 low at 121-18/02, below here would enable a run at the Dec 26 low at 120-28.

News headlines

Stocks Mixed as Trade Hopes Fail to Lift Europe: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg) Stocks in Europe and U.S. futures drifted after a rally in Asia boosted shares to their highest level since October on optimism over China’s economy and trade talks. Commodities from oil to copper climbed.

World stocks lifted to 2-1/2 month highs by trade optimism (Reuters) Hopes of progress in Sino-U.S. trade talks and expectations of policy stimulus from central banks lifted world stocks to 2-1/2 month highs on Monday, though European gains were dampened by concerns over the car sector’s outlook.

U.S. agency submits auto tariff probe report to White House (Reuters) The U.S. Commerce Department sent a report on Sunday to U.S. President Donald Trump that could unleash steep tariffs on imported cars and auto parts, provoking a sharp backlash from the industry even before it is unveiled, the agency confirmed.

Brent steadies, set for biggest first-quarter rise since 2011 (Reuters) Brent crude oil steadied on Monday, on track for its strongest first quarter in eight years, thanks to a growing belief among investors that OPEC’s supply cuts will prevent a build-up in unused fuel, though concern over China’s economy offset gains.

Euro gains as U.S.-China trade-talk optimism boosts sentiment (Reuters) The euro rallied and riskier currencies like the Australian dollar strengthened on Monday as optimism over a breakthrough in U.S.-China trade war talks encouraged investors.

European stocks hold onto four-month highs as trade talks progress (Reuters) Fresh from touching their highest level in four months on Friday, European stocks stalled on Monday as investors cashed in their gains ahead of further U.S.-China trade talks in Washington this week.

EU does not see U.S. car imports as national security matter: Germany (Reuters) A spokesman for Germany’s government said it was the European Union’s view that the U.S.’s car imports were not a national security matter, meaning that security could not be a justification for imposing additional tariffs on cars.

Overnight markets

Cda Benchmarks	Yield	Tsy Benchmarks	Yield
2 Year	1.778%	2 Year	2.514%
5 Year	1.802%	5 Year	2.493%
10 Year	1.895%	10 Year	2.663%
30 Year	2.152%	30 Year	2.994%

US Economic Data

There is no US economic data for today.

Canadian Economic Data

There is no Canadian economic data for today.

Disclosure and Disclaimer

The following sources of information have been, or may have been, used partially or in their entirety to compile the herein provided CTI Capital Securities Inc. (“CTI Capital”) ‘Morning Comments.’ CTI Capital believes these sources to be generally reliable, however, as said sources are varied and from third parties, CTI Capital cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of said information: Canadian Press (CP); Bloomberg News (BN); Wall Street Journal (WSJ); Stone & McCarthy Research Associates (SMRA); New York Times (NYT); Financial Times (FT); Market News International (MNI); Globe and Mail; Associated Press (AP); CNW Group (CNW); Reuters; Business News Network (BNN); Market Watch; and others.

Ivan Greenstein, Stephan Buu, Émile Bordeleau

Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilières Inc.

Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230

Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilieres Inc.

Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230

Market Update

Tsys trading lower, yields 1-2bps higher, 10Y 2.67% after positive US/China headlines after Xi noted important progress in talks. EGBs quiet, bunds slightly higher, gilts flat, Italy 10Y BTPs 7bps higher. Equities in Europe 1.3% higher, S&P futures +6. GOCs lower in line with tsys, early close for family day. The BOC announced it will auction $400mln in 30Y rrbs next Wednesday, with long breakevens showing few signs of life trading in a narrow range ~146bps since Dec

News headlines

Xi says trade talks progress, more meetings next week in U.S (Reuters) Talks between China and the United States this week made important progress, President Xi Jinping told top U.S. trade negotiators on Friday, adding that efforts would continue in Washington next week to resolve their bruising trade war.

Deal or delay? Wall Street doesn’t believe no-deal Brexit threat (Reuters) As the United Kingdom’s Brexit crisis deepens, Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan have differing views of the ultimate outcome but the two titans of Wall Street agree on one thing: They don’t believe there will be a no-deal Brexit.

Exclusive: China offers to end market-distorting subsidies but won’t say how (Reuters) China has pledged to end market-distorting subsidies for its domestic industries but offered no details on how it would achieve that goal, according to three people familiar with the U.S.-China trade talks in Beijing this week.

Risk of U.S. corporate recession rises as earnings outlook dims (Reuters) The outlook for Wall Street earnings has deteriorated significantly in recent months, data shows, raising the risk that companies in the United States may slip into recession before its economy does – with Europe close behind.

European shares recover after Mnuchin calls U.S.-China trade talks ‘productive’ (Reuters) Signs of progress from U.S.-China trade talks in Beijing helped European stocks reverse earlier losses on Friday, while auto shares continued to slide after figures showing an ongoing slump in European car sales.

The Bank of Canada might not be done hiking just yet (BNN) Investors wagering that the Bank of Canada is ready to throw in the towel on its tightening cycle are setting themselves up for disappointment, say market strategists at some of the country’s biggest banks.

U.S. Futures, European Stocks Climb on Trade Hopes: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg) U.S. equity futures tracked European stocks higher as positive developments in the trade outlook overshadowed lingering concerns about global growth. Treasuries held steady and the dollar advanced.

Oil Poised for Weekly Gain as OPEC+ Curbs Counter Trade Worries (Bloomberg) Oil headed for its biggest weekly gain in a month as the OPEC+ coalition’s supply cuts and reduced output from the world’s biggest offshore field overshadowed renewed concern over the U.S.-China trade war.

Trump set to declare border emergency, sign shutdown-averting bill (Reuters) U.S. President Donald Trump was poised on Friday to declare a national emergency at the U.S.-Mexico border, a move that Democrats vowed to challenge as an unconstitutional attempt to fund his proposed border wall without approval from Congress.

Overnight markets

Cda Benchmarks	Yield	Tsy Benchmarks	Yield
2 Year	1.773%	2 Year	2.504%
5 Year	1.797%	5 Year	2.485%
10 Year	1.889%	10 Year	2.664%
30 Year	2.147%	30 Year	3.002%

US Economic Data

8:30 AM	Empire Manufacturing, Feb Surv 7.0 Actual 8.8 Prior 3.9
	Import Price Index MoM, Jan Surv -0.2% Actual -0.5%Prior -1.0%
	Import Price Index YoY, Jan Surv -1.6% Actual -1.7% Prior -0.6%
9:15 AM	Industrial Production MoM, Jan Surv 0.1% Prior 0.3%
	Capacity Utilization, Jan Surv 78.7% Prior 78.7%
10:00 AM	Mortgage Delinquencies , 4Q Prior 4.47%
	MBA Mortgage Foreclosures, 4Q Prior 0.99%
	U. of Mich. Sentiment, Feb P Surv 93.7 Prior 91.2
4:00 PM	Net Long-term TIC Flows, Dec Prior $37.6b
	Total Net TIC Flows, Dec Prior $ 31.0b

Canadian Economic Data

8:30 AM	Int’l Securities Transactions, Dec Actual -18.96b Prior 9.45b
9:00 AM	Existing Home Sales MoM, Jan Surv -0.6% Prior -2.5%

Disclosure and Disclaimer

The following sources of information have been, or may have been, used partially or in their entirety to compile the herein provided CTI Capital Securities Inc. (“CTI Capital”) ‘Morning Comments.’ CTI Capital believes these sources to be generally reliable, however, as said sources are varied and from third parties, CTI Capital cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of said information: Canadian Press (CP); Bloomberg News (BN); Wall Street Journal (WSJ); Stone & McCarthy Research Associates (SMRA); New York Times (NYT); Financial Times (FT); Market News International (MNI); Globe and Mail; Associated Press (AP); CNW Group (CNW); Reuters; Business News Network (BNN); Market Watch; and others.

Ivan Greenstein, Stephan Buu, Émile Bordeleau

Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilières Inc.

Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230

Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilieres Inc.

Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230