Commentaires
11/02/2019
Market Update
Tsys trading weaker across the curve, on low volume (230k), 10Y 2.65% (+1.6bps). ‘Risk on’ with equities higher -S&P futures reversing earlier decline now +9, USD index higher for eighth day, crude lower – expectations that trade talks with US & China will yield positive results ahead of March 1st deadline for higher tariffs. GOCs lower, 0.5-1bp wider vs tsys, 10y 1.90%, 10Y butterfly 2bps weaker on the curve. GOC yields barely 2-3bps higher since Friday’s blockbuster employment data after short covering led by CGBs. Provis opening unch , more supply expected (alberta, Sask)
News headlines
Stocks inch higher as investors look ahead to trade talks, Brexit (Reuters) World stock markets edged higher on Monday, as investors eyed the resumption of trade talks between the United States and China and watched for signs of progress on Brexit.
China upbeat on U.S. trade talks, but South China Sea tensions weigh (Reuters) China struck an upbeat note on Monday as trade talks resumed with the United States, but also expressed anger at a U.S. Navy mission through the disputed South China Sea, casting a shadow over the prospect for improved Beijing-Washington ties.
TSX futures up on U.S-China trade deal hopes (Reuters) Stock futures for Canada’s main index rose on Monday, lifted by fresh hopes that the United States and China will take necessary steps to resolve their trade dispute.
Oil Near $52 After Worst Week Since December on Growth Concerns (Bloomberg) Oil slipped again, trading near $52 a barrel in New York after mounting concerns about the health of the global economy triggered the sharpest weekly price drop since December.
Ottawa expects trade interest in China to slow amid tensions (BNN) Canada’s trade minister says the government expects Canadian business interest in China to slow given current tensions, but he is confident the two countries will work through their differences and allow economic ties to again flourish.
With Iran squeezed out, U.S. oil takes on new rivals in Europe (Reuters) When the global oil trading industry gathered for its biggest annual meeting in Asia in September last year, U.S. oil producing companies came well prepared.
Exclusive: German trade surplus with U.S. declined in 2018 but was still almost 49 billion euros (Reuters) Germany’s trade surplus with the United States, a frequent source of tension with U.S. President Donald Trump, declined last year but nonetheless remained at around 49 billion euros ($55.37 billion), data seen by Reuters showed on Monday.
Time Running Out to Avoid Government Shutdown as Talks Falter (Bloomberg) Time is running out to avoid a second partial government shutdown, as congressional talks about border-security funding broke down during the weekend in the latest dispute over detention beds for immigrants.
Overnight markets
| Cda Benchmarks | Yield | Tsy Benchmarks | Yield |
| 2 Year | 1.788% | 2 Year | 2.471% |
| 5 Year | 1.813% | 5 Year | 2.455% |
| 10 Year | 1.904% | 10 Year | 2.647% |
| 30 Year | 2.153% | 30 Year | 2.988% |
US Economic Data
There is no US economic data for today.
Canadian Economic Data
| 10:00 AM | Bloomberg Nanos Confidence, Feb 8 Prior 54.2 |
Disclosure and Disclaimer
The following sources of information have been, or may have been, used partially or in their entirety to compile the herein provided CTI Capital Securities Inc. (“CTI Capital”) ‘Morning Comments.’ CTI Capital believes these sources to be generally reliable, however, as said sources are varied and from third parties, CTI Capital cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of said information: Canadian Press (CP); Bloomberg News (BN); Wall Street Journal (WSJ); Stone & McCarthy Research Associates (SMRA); New York Times (NYT); Financial Times (FT); Market News International (MNI); Globe and Mail; Associated Press (AP); CNW Group (CNW); Reuters; Business News Network (BNN); Market Watch; and others.
Ivan Greenstein, Stephan Buu, Émile Bordeleau
Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilières Inc.
Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230
Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilieres Inc.
Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230
08/02/2019
Market Update
Tsys trading higher, top of o/n range on avg volume (~290k), 10Y 2.635% (-1.5bps), closing in on last weeks 2.61% low, late Dec 2.55%. USD index steady after rising for six straight days, DXY 96.50. Quiet day in terms of US data with Fed GDP Nowcast. GOCs higher in line with tsys, thou Can/US spreads are 1-5bps tighter over the week, Can/US 10Y -78bps, seemingly driven by stronger data south of the border (payrolls, ISM…). This morning Canada employment for Jan expected to show a modest 5k increase after +9.3k in Dec and a record 94k in Nov. StatsCan revisions reveal the Cdn economy addes 195.8k jobs last yr vs 163.3k initial estimate.
News headlines
Stock futures fall as trade worries linger (Reuters) U.S. stock futures fell on Friday, as a lack of progress on the U.S.-China trade front kept investors on edge with only three weeks before a truce between the world’s biggest economies comes to an end.
CANADA STOCKS-TSX futures dip amid Sino-U.S. trade row (Reuters) Futures for Canada’s main stock index edged lower on Friday, as trade tensions between the United States and China remained unresolved, slowing global economic growth.
No talks between Trump and China’s Xi before trade deadline (Reuters) U.S. President Donald Trump said on Thursday he did not plan to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping before a March 1 deadline set by the two countries to achieve a trade deal.
U.S. Steel wins tax breaks from one of America’s poorest cities (Reuters) United States Steel Corporation founded Gary, Indiana in 1906 – naming it after co-founder Elbert Henry Gary – and the city’s fortunes have been closely tied to the company ever since.
Exclusive: U.S. considers withdrawal of zero tariffs for India – sources (Reuters) India could lose a vital U.S. trade concession, under which it enjoys zero tariffs on $5.6 billion of exports to the United States, amid a widening dispute over its trade and investment policies, people with close knowledge of the matter said.
Darkening ‘global economic skies’ pull stocks lower (Reuters) Global stocks fell for a third straight day on Friday, and were set for their first weekly loss in seven, as investors worried about a broadening global economic slowdown and the lack of any sign of a resolution to the U.S.-China trade row.
Two key pipeline shutdowns cause Canadian crude price to plummet (BNN) Canadian crude weakened after two critical oil pipelines remained partially shut amid an investigation into a possible leak in Missouri.
African nations sense upper hand in minerals stand-off (Reuters) African nations with rich reserves of copper and cobalt needed for the shift to electric vehicles sense they have the upper hand in negotiations with mining companies that are struggling to secure better terms.
Overnight markets
| Cda Benchmarks | Yield | Tsy Benchmarks | Yield |
| 2 Year | 1.755% | 2 Year | 2.469% |
| 5 Year | 1.775% | 5 Year | 2.446% |
| 10 Year | 1.864% | 10 Year | 2.638% |
| 30 Year | 2.129% | 30 Year | 2.986% |
US Economic Data
There is no US economic data for today.
Canadian Economic Data
| 8:15 AM | Housing Starts, Jan Surv 205.0k Actual 208.0k Prior 213.4k |
| 8:30 AM | Hourly Wage Rate Permanent Employees YoY, Jan Surv 1.6% Prior 1.5% |
| Net Change in Employment, Jan Surv 5.0k Prior 9.3k | |
| Unemployment Rate, Jan Surv 5.7% Prior 5.6% | |
| Participation Rate, Jan Prior 65.4 | |
| Full Time Employment Change, Jan Prior -18.9 | |
| Part Time Employment Change, Jan Prior 28.3 |
Disclosure and Disclaimer
The following sources of information have been, or may have been, used partially or in their entirety to compile the herein provided CTI Capital Securities Inc. (“CTI Capital”) ‘Morning Comments.’ CTI Capital believes these sources to be generally reliable, however, as said sources are varied and from third parties, CTI Capital cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of said information: Canadian Press (CP); Bloomberg News (BN); Wall Street Journal (WSJ); Stone & McCarthy Research Associates (SMRA); New York Times (NYT); Financial Times (FT); Market News International (MNI); Globe and Mail; Associated Press (AP); CNW Group (CNW); Reuters; Business News Network (BNN); Market Watch; and others.
Ivan Greenstein, Stephan Buu, Émile Bordeleau
Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilières Inc.
Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230
Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilieres Inc.
Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230
07/02/2019
Market Update
US tsys trading sharply higher, yields 3-4bps lower, 10Y 2.66%, on heavier volume in TY futures ( ~450k). The latest uptick in prices within the last hour after BOE decision (2019 growth forecast downgraded to 1.2% from 1.7%), Carney warning that Brexit uncertainty weighing on economy. The ECB lowered its forecast for 2019 GDP growth for the Eurozone to 1.3% from 1.9% in Nov. , Italy from 1.2% to 0.2% – BTPs ~10bps wider vs bunds. US stock futures lower (S&P -16/0.60%, Nasdaq -48) the USD higher for a sixth day. GOC yields lower, 1-1.5bps tighter vs tsys. No data in Canada today – Jan Employment tomorrow. The BOC auctions $3bln new 2Y bonds at noon – May 2021s with the WI roll 0.6/0.4 (unch)
News headlines
Futures down as growth worries resurface (Reuters) U.S. stock futures fell on Thursday as worries of slowing global growth resurfaced after the European Union cut its economic growth forecasts, while investors waited for the next breakthrough in U.S.-China trade negotiations.
Bank of England sees weakest UK outlook since 2009 on Brexit, global slowdown (Reuters) The Bank of England said Britain faced its weakest economic growth in 10 years in 2019, blaming mounting Brexit uncertainty and the global slowdown, but it stuck to its message that interest rates will rise if a Brexit deal is done.
EU slashes euro zone growth outlook, expects inflation to slow (Reuters) The European Commission sharply cut on Thursday its forecasts for euro zone economic growth this year and next because it expects the bloc’s largest countries to be held back by global trade tensions and an array of domestic challenges.
World shares go weak as data disappoints, dollar extends power surge (Reuters) Mounting global growth worries thrust share markets into reverse on Thursday, while the dollar scored its longest winning run since a hot streak in early October that helped trigger a wave of worldwide ‘bear’ markets.
Euro slips to two-week low after EU cuts growth forecast (Reuters) The euro fell to a two-week low on Thursday after the European Commission sharply cut its forecasts for economic growth in the euro zone.
Partial oil upgrading the latest fix for Canada’s pipeline problem (Reuters) Canada’s struggling oil industry is looking to what is known as partial upgrading technology to thin its sludge-like crude and squeeze more of it through congested pipelines.
TSX futures fall on lower oil prices (Reuters) Futures for Canada’s main stock index fell on Thursday, pressured by a slip in crude prices.
Trump nominates global-order critic Malpass to lead World Bank (BNN) President Donald Trump nominated senior Treasury official David Malpass to lead the World Bank, choosing a loyalist who has been sharply critical of China and has called for a shakeup of the global economic order.
U.K. and Canada Can Avoid New Tariffs Post-Brexit, Envoy Says (Bloomberg) The U.K.’s top envoy to Canada says she’s confident the two countries can avoid new tariffs after Brexit scuttles their existing trade agreement.
Overnight markets
| Cda Benchmarks | Yield | Tsy Benchmarks | Yield |
| 2 Year | 1.783% | 2 Year | 2.498% |
| 5 Year | 1.8% | 5 Year | 2.471% |
| 10 Year | 1.89% | 10 Year | 2.668% |
| 30 Year | 2.146% | 30 Year | 3.012% |
US Economic Data
| 8:30 AM | Initial Jobless Claims, Feb-02 Surv 221k Prior 253k |
| Continuing Claims, Jan-26 Surv 1733k Prior 1782k | |
| 9:45 AM | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, Feb-03 Prior 57.4 |
| 3:00 PM | Consumer Credit, Dec Surv $17.000b Prior $22.149b |
Canadian Economic Data
There is no Canadian economic data for today.
Disclosure and Disclaimer
The following sources of information have been, or may have been, used partially or in their entirety to compile the herein provided CTI Capital Securities Inc. (“CTI Capital”) ‘Morning Comments.’ CTI Capital believes these sources to be generally reliable, however, as said sources are varied and from third parties, CTI Capital cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of said information: Canadian Press (CP); Bloomberg News (BN); Wall Street Journal (WSJ); Stone & McCarthy Research Associates (SMRA); New York Times (NYT); Financial Times (FT); Market News International (MNI); Globe and Mail; Associated Press (AP); CNW Group (CNW); Reuters; Business News Network (BNN); Market Watch; and others.
Ivan Greenstein, Stephan Buu, Émile Bordeleau
Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilières Inc.
Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230
Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilieres Inc.
Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230