Commentaires

Market Update

US tsys slightly higher, curve 0.5bps steeper, 10Y 2.74% on avg volume in TY futures (316k).  Crude rebounding from yest losses, up 0.85% after the US levied sanctions on Venezuela’s State oil co.  Equities higher in Europe (Stoxx +0.60%), US equity futures higher (S&P +2) – trade talks ongoing between the US & China with the US govt launching criminal charges against Huawei. Gilts underperforming bunds as mkt awaits UK parliament votes on Brexit amendment. GOCs lower in line with tsys, curve unch 10Y 1.96%

News headlines

Powell faces early reckoning on Fed’s $4-trillion question (Reuters) Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has a problem: how to explain that the Fed may soon begin to taper its ongoing asset-shedding operation without looking like he’s hunkering down for a coming recession, or caving to U.S. President Donald Trump.

Gold reaches seven-month high as stocks, dollar struggle (Reuters) Gold climbed to a seven-month high on Tuesday as markets opted for caution before three major macro events and a blizzard of big tech company earnings in the coming days, starting with Apple later.

Stocks Mixed as Investors Weigh U.S.-China Outlook: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg) It was a mixed picture across global stock markets on Tuesday, with European shares climbing, U.S. futures mixed and Asian equities slipping as investors juggled concerns about the fallout from America’s trade war with China against hopes for progress in this week’s talks.

EU-Canada trade deal is lawful: EU court adviser (Reuters) The EU-Canada free trade deal’s provisions on investor protection are in line with EU law, a senior court adviser said on Tuesday in a recommendation to the European Court of Justice (ECJ) about terms seen by critics as favoring multinationals.

MONEY MARKETS-Dollar LIBOR falls for five straight sessions (Reuters) A key barometer of interbank interest rates declined on Tuesday for the fifth consecutive trading session to its lowest level since early December ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s two-day policy meeting.

Trump to wade into China trade talks as U.S. targets Huawei (BNN) The Trump administration will press China to prove it can keep promises in talks this week aimed at ending the trade war, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said, as the U.S. ratcheted up legal pressure on one of the biggest examples of Chinese technological might.

U.S. sanctions Venezuela state oil firm, escalating pressure on Maduro (Reuters) The Trump administration on Monday imposed sweeping sanctions on Venezuelan state-owned oil firm PDVSA, aimed at severely curbing the OPEC member’s crude exports to the United States and at pressuring socialist President Nicolas Maduro to step down.

Overnight markets

Cda Benchmarks	Yield	Tsy Benchmarks	Yield
2 Year	1.868%	2 Year	2.583%
5 Year	1.881%	5 Year	2.572%
10 Year	1.959%	10 Year	2.739%
30 Year	2.18%	30 Year	3.069%

US Economic Data

9:00 AM	S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA, Nov Surv 4.90% Prior 5.03%
	S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA, Nov Surv 0.40% Prior 0.41%
	S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index, Nov Prior 213.89
	S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA, Nov Prior 5.48%
	S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA Index, Nov Prior 206.03
10:00 AM	Conf. Board Consumer Confidence, Jan Surv 124.0 Prior 128.1

Canadian Economic Data

There is no Canadian economic data for today.

Disclosure and Disclaimer

The following sources of information have been, or may have been, used partially or in their entirety to compile the herein provided CTI Capital Securities Inc. (“CTI Capital”) ‘Morning Comments.’ CTI Capital believes these sources to be generally reliable, however, as said sources are varied and from third parties, CTI Capital cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of said information: Canadian Press (CP); Bloomberg News (BN); Wall Street Journal (WSJ); Stone & McCarthy Research Associates (SMRA); New York Times (NYT); Financial Times (FT); Market News International (MNI); Globe and Mail; Associated Press (AP); CNW Group (CNW); Reuters; Business News Network (BNN); Market Watch; and others.

Ivan Greenstein, Stephan Buu, Émile Bordeleau

Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilières Inc.

Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230

Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilieres Inc.

Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230

Market Update

US tsys higher, rebounding from early losses, with the long end outperforming and the 10Y 2.75% (-1bp). Quiet start to otherwise busy week in the US in terms of data with Chicago Fed Index & Dallas Fed Man Index .  Equity futures moving lower (S&P -17) after Caterpillar missed Q4 eps by $0.44 – $2.55 vs $2.99, shares are ~6% lower pre-mkt.  FOMC decision & Non-farm payrolls highlights for the week – Fed chairman Powell may provide more clarity of the topic of balance sheet reduction after last week’s article in the WSJ.

News headlines

$1.5 trillion U.S. tax cut has no major impact on business capex plans: survey (Reuters) The Trump administration’s $1.5 trillion cut tax package appeared to have no major impact on businesses’ capital investment or hiring plans, according to a survey released a year after the biggest overhaul of the U.S. tax code in more than 30 years.

Stock futures dip on weak Caterpillar forecast, China woes (Reuters) U.S. stock index futures dipped on Monday, as weak forecast from Caterpillar added to nerves about Chinese economy, while optimism over the end to the longest U.S. government shutdown in history faded.

Trudeau Ousts China Envoy After Comments About Huawei Case (Bloomberg) Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has ousted his ambassador to China in the middle of a diplomatic feud with Beijing after a string of public remarks drew criticism.

Explainer: Key Issues, implications of U.S.-China trade talks (Reuters) U.S.-China trade talks will reach a pivotal phase this week when Chinese Vice Premier Liu He comes to Washington for negotiations with his U.S. counterparts, U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin.

UPDATE 1-Sterling trade turns cautious ahead of parliamentary votes on Brexit (Reuters) The pound slipped on Monday after posting its biggest weekly rise in more than 15 months last week as investors took profits before crucial votes in the British parliament that will aim to break the Brexit deadlock.

Dollar dips as investors prepare for volatile markets, Fed meeting (Reuters) The euro climbed to a 10-day high on Monday as investors sold the dollar and prepared for volatile markets before U.S.-China trade talks and a Federal Reserve policy decision.

Long winter’s nap? Global slowdown, market fears could extend Fed pause (Reuters) Ebbing global growth and shaky financial markets threw the U.S. Federal Reserve off course in early 2016, and it took nearly a year for officials to regain confidence growth would continue and convince investors they would again raise interest rates.

Overnight markets

Cda Benchmarks	Yield	Tsy Benchmarks	Yield
2 Year	1.883%	2 Year	2.609%
5 Year	1.906%	5 Year	2.603%
10 Year	1.988%	10 Year	2.758%
30 Year	2.208%	30 Year	3.064%

US Economic Data

8:30 AM	Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index, Dec Prior 0.22
10:30 AM	Dallas Fed Manf. Activity, Jan Surv -2.7 Prior -5.1

Canadian Economic Data

10:00 AM

Bloomberg Nanos  Confidence, Jan 25 Prior 54.5

Disclosure and Disclaimer

The following sources of information have been, or may have been, used partially or in their entirety to compile the herein provided CTI Capital Securities Inc. (“CTI Capital”) ‘Morning Comments.’ CTI Capital believes these sources to be generally reliable, however, as said sources are varied and from third parties, CTI Capital cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of said information: Canadian Press (CP); Bloomberg News (BN); Wall Street Journal (WSJ); Stone & McCarthy Research Associates (SMRA); New York Times (NYT); Financial Times (FT); Market News International (MNI); Globe and Mail; Associated Press (AP); CNW Group (CNW); Reuters; Business News Network (BNN); Market Watch; and others.

Ivan Greenstein, Stephan Buu, Émile Bordeleau

Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilières Inc.

Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230

Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilieres Inc.

Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230

Market Update

US tsys moving lower, TY futures at lows of o/n session on moderate volume (~335k), 10Y 1.735% (+2bps), MNI citing a WSJ article on earlier than earlier Fed balance sheet runoff , no Fedspeak before FOMC decision next Wednesday, whiel todays US Durable Goods & New Home Sales data are postponed.  EGBs trading mixed, bunds sideways, gilts underperforming before next week’s parliament vote on –  German IFO expecations fell to the lowest since Nov 2012 yet was priced in after yesterdays weak ZEW.  Month end extensions in focus with the Bloomberg-Barclays US Tsy index expected to increase by 0.06yrs vs 0.07 last Jan.  GOCs lower, in line with tsys, 10Y 1.955%, Can/US 2-3bps tighter vs the US wk/wk led by 10s.

News headlines

Fed Officials Weigh Earlier-Than-Expected End to Bond Portfolio Runoff (WSJ)Federal Reserve officials are close to deciding they will maintain a larger portfolio of Treasury securities than they’d expected when they began shrinking those holdings two years ago, putting an end to the central bank’s portfolio wind-down closer into sight.

Global stocks gain on earnings, euro rebounds after dovish ECB (Reuters) Global stocks rose on Friday, as strong earnings helped to underpin investor sentiment in the face of growing signs that the global economy is slowing and a still unresolved trade dispute between the United States and China.

U.S. fund managers play defense during shutdown (Reuters) U.S. fund managers are retreating from consumer-related stocks and increasing exposure to loan-focused companies as investors worry the U.S. government shutdown – now the longest in U.S. history – may leave some deep scars on the economy.

Global shipping rates slump in latest sign of economic slowdown (Reuters) Freight rates for dry-bulk and container ships, carriers of most of the world’s raw materials and finished goods, have plunged over the last six months in the latest sign the global economy is slowing significantly.

Shutdown Talks Signal Potential for Deal Even as Trump Demands Wall (Bloomberg) New negotiations between the Senate’s top Republican and Democrat and the White House signaled the potential for a deal to end the partial government shutdown even as President Donald Trump continued to insist on money for a border wall that Democrats reject.

Canada’s China Ambassador Says He ‘Misspoke’ on Politics of Huawei Case (Bloomberg) Canada’s ambassador to China sought to retract comments suggesting politics would play a role in the potential extradition to the U.S. of a Huawei Technologies Co. executive, adding another setback to weeks of tension between the two countries.

Tech exuberance lifts European shares near two-month highs (Reuters) European shares on Friday hit their highest level in nearly two months as investors flocked to technology stocks after positive U.S. earnings overnight, while news of slowing revenue growth from Vodafone weighed on telecoms.

US STOCKS-Futures higher as upbeat corporate earnings lift sentiment (Reuters) U.S. stock index futures rose on Friday, as upbeat earnings reports lifted market optimism, which has recently been hit by worries about global economic growth, U.S. government shutdown and uncertainty around U.S.-China trade talks.

European shares hit highest level in nearly two months, helped by tech rally (Reuters) European shares on Friday hit their highest level in nearly two months as investors flocked to technology stocks after positive U.S. earnings overnight, while news of slowing revenue growth from Vodafone weighed on telecoms.

Overnight markets

US Economic Data

There is no US economic data for today.

Canadian Economic Data

There is no Canadian economic data for today.

Disclosure and Disclaimer

The following sources of information have been, or may have been, used partially or in their entirety to compile the herein provided CTI Capital Securities Inc. (“CTI Capital”) ‘Morning Comments.’ CTI Capital believes these sources to be generally reliable, however, as said sources are varied and from third parties, CTI Capital cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of said information: Canadian Press (CP); Bloomberg News (BN); Wall Street Journal (WSJ); Stone & McCarthy Research Associates (SMRA); New York Times (NYT); Financial Times (FT); Market News International (MNI); Globe and Mail; Associated Press (AP); CNW Group (CNW); Reuters; Business News Network (BNN); Market Watch; and others.

Ivan Greenstein, Stephan Buu, Émile Bordeleau

Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilières Inc.

Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230

Institutional Bond and Equity Desk
CTI Capital Valeurs Mobilieres Inc.

Tel : (514)-861-0240
Fax: (514)-861-3230